30-60 hand - mike l thinks I blew one street

[Nate tha' Great]

Preflop?

Based on some reasonable inferences about your opponents' likely range of hands, I get you as having something like 23-24% hot-and-cold equity here against three opponents. You are getting a small overlay from your blind money and your hand reading skills might do a lot to make up for being out of position, but I think you might be overrating your position some; even if you have the best pair before the flop, you're playing dodgeball against lots of overcards and potential draws, and in a pot this large, it's likely to be a 4- or 5-card hand.

I think that, if you're going to play the hand, it's best to get that cap in right away. First of all, there's a good chance that UTG folds, which will increase your equity matierally (by 6-7%, according to my recknoning). Secondly, you put a lot of pressure on your opponents when they miss, which should allow you to pick up more pots after the flop.

I recognize that a good player calling three cold is pretty scary all on its own, but I think the cap is your highest EV play, especially as, if one of your opponents somehow has emerged with a big hand, it's very likely to get capped anyway.

[Clarkmeister]

"if one of your opponents somehow has emerged with a big hand, it's very likely to get capped anyway. "

But don't I want to give *them* the opportunity to cap so I at least know I'm against a real hand? I think so. The other thing is that I thought (maybe incorrectly) that UTG was bad enough that he wasn't capable of folding, even for 3-more.

[elindauer]

Hi Clarkmeister,

In the blocks with 66, your hand is too weak to call the cap. I see that you are reading the players as being weaker than normal, but the button may well be capping with a higher pair, even if it's only 88, and you'll have a hard time making him fold. Worse, with the lag on your right, you'll fold incorrectly often. Muck it.

If your hand were stronger but not quite playable, like TT, then I'd think your call was OK. Note that TT dominates much more of the crap UTG is raising and the button is capping than 66 does.

On the river, when the scare card hits, it might be better to check and call. A laggy button may bet more hands than he'll call with, and you have to call a raise if he did improve (unlikely, given his passive play so far).

I don't think the river is clear though. Make a note of what this LAG will play this passively if you get to see his hand. I'm guessing it's something extremely weak that might not be good (in his mind) even if he catches. Maybe QJc. He's wants to fold and is only calling because the pot is huge. Check and let him make the desperation stab with that crap.


Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop and flop are standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think calling 3 cold with 66 is standard? I don't. This would be a turbo-super-easy muck without player reads. Now, we're given a read that the players involved may be weaker than normal, but is this enough to take a no brainer instafold and turn it into a call? Definitely not standard.

Note that UTG can still have aces, EP may be acting or just pissed that he feels obligated to 3-bet 99, the LAG may have decided to 4-bet 77, etc.


Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I like how you check-raised the flop, given that, though, maybe check the turn, hoping for the check-through, and then bet out at the river due to "hitting your flush"?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Do you really think this is the best play, or are you just trying to make up a play that maybe somebody else thinks is the best play so you can be in agreement with them? You know, it is possible that, even though two players seem to have agreed that exactly one street was misplayed, there were zero or even two misplayed streets.

Anyways, this convoluted flush draw representation is ridiculous. There's no way a LAG is folding a pair for one bet in a huge pot.


Good luck.
Eric

[rory]

I really don't understand why it is suddenly OK to play a small pair in a 4 way pot for 3 bets out of position on purpose. Did I miss a memo?

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't understand why it is suddenly OK to play a small pair in a 4 way pot for 3 bets out of position on purpose. Did I miss a memo?

[/ QUOTE ]

I must've missed the original memo that said that it wasn't ok.

I thought there was a huge chance I had the best hand preflop. Given that, I think folding is absurd. I considered capping, but decided that there were informational and playing advantages to smoothcalling. Plus, smoothcalling 3 looks damn scary to my opponents and allowed me to overrepresent my hand here.

[rory]

I have a lot to learn about this game.

[mike l.]

cool should be a good thread. what's interesting is the rest of the hand is expertly played, and i think the more it gets discussed the more obvious it will be that the one bad street is really really -EV.

one question that will come up is what would you do if he raises the turn. i think the answer is call down, but im almost never satisfied with that line.

[Ulysses]

At first glance I thought checking the river to induce a bluff was better. Upon further reflection I've decided that betting is better.