Time to make a move? - Page 2

betgo · #11 10-27-2005, 10:26 AM

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First, i would have taken the free card, but after betting, and getting raised, i think a push is probably best. stacks are pretty shallow, so it's either push or fold, and i think you have a good bit of equity, so folding is probably bad.

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This is a strong draw to the nut flush with an overcard and a pair. I don't like checking the flop.

Exitonly · #12 10-27-2005, 10:30 AM

meh, it's early in the tournament, it's a small pot, if it's checked to me on the turn i'd bet at it.

Slow Play Ray · #13 10-27-2005, 10:33 AM

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First, i would have taken the free card, but after betting, and getting raised, i think a push is probably best. stacks are pretty shallow, so it's either push or fold, and i think you have a good bit of equity, so folding is probably bad.

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This is a strong draw to the nut flush with an overcard and a pair. I don't like checking the flop.

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Oh geez I read the HH wrong - for some reason I thought Hero was SB all this time.

Anyway, why not take a free card on the flop? If you hit anything, you have a pretty well-disguised hand at this point...perfect time to catch somebody off-guard.

So here's a question: do you like your implied odds better if you bet the flop, get called by the BB, and hit your draw, or if you take a free card and hit your draw w/ BB and MP both still involved? I think I prefer the latter situation.

betgo · #14 10-27-2005, 10:33 AM

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meh, it's early in the tournament, it's a small pot, if it's checked to me on the turn i'd bet at it.

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Why bet the turn, when you are a significant underdog to a pair and not the flop when you are proabably the favorite?

Slow Play Ray · #15 10-27-2005, 10:34 AM

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meh, it's early in the tournament, it's a small pot, if it's checked to me on the turn i'd bet at it.

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in this particular example, the BB would probably bet any non-ace turn card.

Exitonly · #16 10-27-2005, 10:38 AM

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meh, it's early in the tournament, it's a small pot, if it's checked to me on the turn i'd bet at it.

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Why bet the turn, when you are a significant underdog to a pair and not the flop when you are proabably the favorite?

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I'd bet the turn because if it's checked to me twice i think my bet has a much higher % of taking it down.

And i'm not even sure i'd bet the turn.

basically this is a tiny pot, i'm not going to go after it hardcore, i'll fight for big pots.

betgo · #17 10-27-2005, 10:50 AM

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basically this is a tiny pot, i'm not going to go after it hardcore, i'll fight for big pots.

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I think betting the flop is partly a value bet.

rockythecat99 · #18 10-27-2005, 11:00 AM

Hero pushes.

HoldingFolding · #19 10-27-2005, 08:15 PM

I don't like seeing the turn here. That's what I used to do and I never got anywhere in MTTs, the main reason being that nobody pays your flush off when you hit it. I find the key to the early levels of MTTs is building the pot, getting HU then putting your opponent to the test. The problem with this hand was that the oppponent had already more than doubled up and wasn't in fear of his tournament life. I think I might have done better to raise to 450 and push any turn, since the push is really defining my hand as a flush draw - I don't think a set or whatever would play this way - and he has the chips to be in the mood for a coinflip.

He used up most of his timebank before calling with KJo, the turn was the 2c & MHIG.

woodguy · #20 10-27-2005, 08:41 PM

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So if we're right and he has just a weak King, we are 51% to hit one of our outs. It's a marginally +EV play w/o even including fold equity, so like I said I probably call. But I still don't necessarily like risking my whole stack at this stage.

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If the read is right, and he has a weak K, we 51% to make the hand, just like you said.

But I disagree that this is margianlly +EV.

There is 335 in the pot, when the action gets back to us, and if we push and get called we will be betting 1345 to win 1680, which is 1.25-1.

If we allow for even 10% folding equity/he's bluffing equity, we are over a 60-40 edge getting 1:25-1 for all our chips.

I think that's a big enough edge to get all the chips involved especially early, as a bigger stack allows you to take more fish $$$ in the early going.

I think this is better than marginal spot.

Then again, I really like stiring the pot when the discussion is "thin edges". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy