When you don't want overcalls.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh? Expected value is very close 0? Not -2BB? And what does it matter if SB calls 2 cold with a hand we beat when we're not ahead of CO? (assuming CO won't fold) This post really confuses me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're right. I was just looking at it in terms of (-2BB into the pot)+(0BB value received) as far as the value received out of the raise. Of course for the call our EV = (-1BB)+(X*PotSize), where X is how often we win the hand. And as for the raise, we have to factor in that it is virtually worthless when CO has us beat, so for the raise (in relation to the call), whatever 1-X is, that portion of the raise we get no value back out of it (thus -1BB+(1-X)*0+ X*Y, where Y is the amount of time it succeeds in getting the BB to fold a better hand.

So if A is the amount of time SB has us beat and B is the amount of time he folds that time (of the times he has it), the value of a raise (as compared to a call--so if this number comes out positive raising should be right, and if it comes out negative calling should be right) might look like:
-1BB +(1-X)*0+X*A*B*(+PotSize)

I was simply referring in my mind to the (1-X)*0 part of the equation--that portion of the time, we put in an additional BB to pay for the raise but we get virtually 0 value back out of the raise.

But yeah all my numbers were assuming we would call if we didn't raise, so I was analyzing the marginal value between calling and raising.


It matters if SB calls 2 cold with a hand we beat when we're beaten by CO because, that extremely rare portion of the time, we win an extra BB that we wouldn't have won had we just called CO's raise. So in my above equation where it says (1-X)*0 you should actually replace 0 with a very very small number. I didn't really need to state this, was just pointing out that the value of the raise in relation to a call when CO does have us beat is not EXACTLY 0, although it is very close to 0.

Sorry I confused you! It's about 4 am here in Japan, and ever since I have been here I feel like my English has gotten stranger and stranger.

Anyway I'd be interested in how you feel about this play as opposed to just calling.

[DeathDonkey]

Turn bet?

-DeathDonkey

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn bet?

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if I agree with a turn bet, since:

1. Occasionally we're just putting in money behind to 88 or the like, or even being check/raised by a slowplayed jack.

2. The times we aren't behind, Villain(s) usually are just drawing to 3 outs, and may even bet the river with these hands unimproved (the short-stack especially). But I could be really off on this.

Either way, it seems like the positives of taking the free card when behind are very good, while the negatives of giving a free card when ahead are only marginally bad.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn bet?

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I should have, if that's what you're asking.

Rob

[istewart]

Could you elaborate a bit on why? I'm torn as well because looking at the hand I see you being ahead fairly frequently, but the converse of that being you're dominating your opponents' holdings. Do you see yourself folding better hands?

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn bet?

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I should have, if that's what you're asking.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]


ent, do you think that a turn bet will get the sb to fold a hand that beats you at all there.

I'm just not sure how much value a turn bet has there, as if I'm the sb that board is a relatively safe board for a hand like 88-1010 considering that your hand strength might not be as big as a normal three bet with the CO being nearly all-in.

His line of thinking could be that you are trying to isolate the CO with a weaker then normal holding because the CO will be all in at some point in the hand, so you might not have much more then a naked ace(in the midx range) or something along the lines of K10s or K9s since those hands will be favorites over a random donk hand(people tend to get weird when they are nearly all in)

i dunno, I'm not sure what I'm trying to justify really as I don't know how long you've been at the table and all of the other possible image stuff since the stars 5/10 full is generally a tougher game then even the party one, and basically, right now, I'm just throwing some thoughts out there and trying to see what sticks