JJ on the bubble. Small stack almost blinded out. Do I call a push?

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Wait wait wait, u DO NOT want to call if he pushes and flips over KQ. He shold be doing this w/ any two cards, so the call is fine on THAT basis, not because he specifically had KQ this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you are saying that if I somehow _knew_ he had KQ, I should have folded, because it's a coinflip?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if that's the right answer but for me, the answer if yes.

If it's truly a coin-flip, I'm busting out 1/2 the time and still on the bubble (albeit, with a big stack) the rest of the time.

So, I'm either making no money or have a good shot at some money. Since I think I already have a good shot at some money, I think calling is bad if I know it's a coin-flip.

Edit: BTW, I think the raise to 1500 was to cover you and the BB so you couldn't go all-in over the top. He would fold to a re-raise by the big stack. Therefore, I think it does represent a hand that doesn't really want a lot of action.

[sofere]

If you knew he had KQ i'd fold faster superman on laundry day. Am I the only one who is advocating folding JJ here? BB has 400 left after posting (one orbit left). You have 6.5x the BB. You can fold here and push any moderately decent hand in the next orbit. BB is getting 1.75:1 to call and will be calling with a wide range if you fold. If he calls, its probably close to 50/50 that he's out that hand. If he folds or survives, you still have fold equity left.

FWIW, without any calculations i think i'd need QQ+ to call here, if small stack had 100 less I'd need KK+

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
If you knew he had KQ i'd fold faster superman on laundry day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahha.

I am considering buying Eastbay's SNG Tools just to get a definitive answer to this post.

[AceHiStation]

I think the only way you can call this is if you can put the bigstack on a lower PP or Ax or Kx. I probably would have made the call and been upset with myself afterwords. I say unless he's been raising every other hand, lay it down.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the only way you can call this is if you can put the bigstack on a lower PP or Ax or Kx. I probably would have made the call and been upset with myself afterwords. I say unless he's been raising every other hand, lay it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually i would made the hand range even wider-- ANY TWO. If i was the big stack, i'm pushing 32o+. JJ is a heavy favorite vs that range, that's why i'm calling, and hoping JJ holds up.

KQ vs JJ in ICM is very negative, about -4.6% of the prize pool.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
What if I told you this was a $215?

[/ QUOTE ]

you LIE!!! where are the other 2k chips?!?!?!?!?!?!? holla

[raptor517]

i havent really read what everyone else says, but if anyone says fold, they are wrong. the BB has WAY too many chips to make this a fold. you win this hand you are now the chip leader, and are playing for first. if you lose to A3, so what, shieeet happens. if the BB has like 3 chips left after posting, MAYBE i will fold. but if the utg player is good at all, hes pretty much raising any 2 here. however, if i was sb, i might just push any 2 against him.. yea, so anyways, autocall with JJ. GGs. holla

[Rosencrantz1]

I think Ed Miller talks a bit about this in GSIH. His advice is to play for first place and not safety play just to arrive in money. You're an underdog to a very small range of hands here and this guy could very well be playing high cards, a lower pair, even an Ax at this point.

Yeah, you'll lose it a few times, but I think you're long-term +EV with pushing here.

[swarm]

too many people are looking at the result of KQ being flipped up as the reason to fold this. You are only a dog to 3 hands... 3! You are only a slight favorite over AK, AQ, KQ (But still a favorite).

The chances that the big stack has one of these 6 hands is very unlikely. Usually you are going to be a big favorite with this call.

Folding this would be silly.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
too many people are looking at the result of KQ being flipped up as the reason to fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was the only point I was arguing. I wouldn't fold this if I couldn't see the raiser's hand.