Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba

[ethan]

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My guess is that you have about a .95 * .95 * .65 chance of getting it folded around. (55-60%)

When you are called by the MP1 or SB, you are likely around 25% equity. When you are called by the MP3, you are probably around 35-40% equity. (total rough intuition guesses without any hand range analysis).

Also, your image is obviously perfect for it.

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If MP3 calls with 88-55, AQo-ATo, AQs-ATs, that puts you at around 42% equity and a chipEV of 8800 or so. If we open that up to {88-55, AQs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AQo-ATo, KQo-KJo, QJo} you're still at 39% and chipEV of 8100. I think it's reasonable to assume you're going to have around 40% equity there. Even { JJ-55, AKs-ATs, AKo-ATo } gives you that.

So. Ignoring overcalls for the moment, because it makes the math easier. Let's say you have 25% equity around 10% of the time vs { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } (that's 27.5%, but figure AKo gets folded some) and 40% equity another 30% of the time. When you have that 25% equity the pot's going to be 22500 or so, and when you have 40% equity it's going to be 21000. If they all fold, your stack's at 13400.

0.25 * 0.1 * 22500 + 0.40 * 0.3 * 21000 + 0.6 * 13400 = 11100, so about 1500 better than folding.

[Vincent Lepore]

You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

Vince

[jacksup]

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You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

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He didn't forget to do that, he knew doing that would be a waste of time. You don't pass up an EV of 1500 chips, unless you hate money.

Matt

[Jedster]

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You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't forget to do that, he knew doing that would be a waste of time. You don't pass up an EV of 1500 chips, unless you hate money.

Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean 1500 chips at this stage in the tournament right?

If your stack is 10k, then 1500 chips EV is equivalent to going all-in heads up as a 57.5% favorite.

If you were playing in a 512 person coin flipping tournament, then being a 57.5% favorite to win each coin flip would make you roughly 3.5 times more likely to win the tournament then the average person who is 50/50 on each coin flip. (You'd win about 1/145 times, they'd win 1/512.)

I imagine that applying this to a poker tournament is a tad more complex, but is that the basic idea why you don't want to pass up 1,500 chips at this stage in the tourney?

[tpir90036]

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You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

Vince

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is the right way of looking at it. If ZJ believes he has a decent sized overlay when compared to the price he is being offered/giving then it's a good spot to try and accumulate some chips. i.e. this might be a pretty darn good spot if his read is correct and not one worth passing up.

[Vincent Lepore]

This is most assurdly a bad move in. You seem to be basing your play on the belief that the sb made a mistake and only meant to call the 150 raise. For your play to be correct you also must aasume that MP3 came to the same conclusion and now believe he can buy the pot. A lot of assumption to base your tournament life on.

Once you addd your 2k chips to the pot it becomes $5700 your raise makes it almost 13k he has to call ~7k to win 13k. The good chance that he might just have what he represents and the pot odds you are giving him given the range of other hands he might have plus your initial call in late position of a small raise I think your play is way off. Just and opinion.

Vince

[Klepton]

i've enjoyed you only posting 7 times in the past 2 months.

please keep this up.

[KramerTM]

While I don't hate the move and would argue that it is at least marginally +EV, it's a play I would avoid at this level of the tournament. With blinds this low and all the internet qualifiers still in, I think someone of your skill level could find better spots than this to get chips. My biggest problem with this move is that you called the initial raise after two callers. This almost always indicates some kind of hand that you want to play multiway (e.g. suited connectors, suited Ax, 22-88, etc.) I think it will be really hard to get a thinking player to fold 77-99 here or even two mid-broadway cards. Don't forget, tricky player might know you know why he raised.

That said, if this move did work (and I hope for your sake it did), I would turn those cards up in a heartbeat and show the table that you're nuts. I'd imagine showcasing here to be quite +EV until your table breaks.

Update us with the results! Also, good luck down there and please post more interesting hands/anectdotes from the island.

[Vincent Lepore]

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I would turn those cards up in a heartbeat and show the table that you're nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's gotta be a mistake.

Vince

[KramerTM]

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I would turn those cards up in a heartbeat and show the table that you're nuts.

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That's gotta be a mistake.

Vince

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Not categorically. Depends on your game. My suggestion was in the context that I would plan on playing very tight/solid poker until my table breaks and hope to stack someone the next time I get a monster. Obviously, showing the cards here stymies future stealing opportunities, but again, it depends on your style.