How to fight paranoia - and a request for book advice

[oneeye13]

weed is bad to fight paranoia

[kleos]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...14&fpart=1

[AKQJ10]

Please learn to use the [URL] tag instead of running all posts off the right side of the screen.

Many thanks to everybody for your time. It's a lot of food for thought.

The funny thing about Ed Miller's article is that I've actually read it, but kinda filed it away under 'gonna need some day when I alrady play better'. Is it suitable for the beginners?

Still I'm a bit unsure - how given the board do I calculate the possibility that the other guy has say a straight or better? I could calculate it for an imaginary "random" player, who does not look at his cards, but what to do with a real person? I realize this is complicated, but maybe some links or articles?

The game I'm playing ATM is 0.02/0.04 Limit Hold'em at Pokerstars. (BTW - is it ok for the beginner? Recommendations on something other to try? I'm mostly not talking bonuses here, but learning how to play)

The 0.01/0.02 was a Freudian slip as it was a No-Limit game that I tried once and got myself beaten for having no idea what I was doing. I'd actually like to try it again if I find something introductory on No-Limit.

At the moment I've ordered both "Getting Started In Hold'em"
and "Small Stakes Hold'em". Unfortunately can't say I'm paying for them from my winnings - I'm barely breaking even at the lowest limit of 0.02/0.04 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
Still I'm a bit unsure - how given the board do I calculate the possibility that the other guy has say a straight or better? I could calculate it for an imaginary "random" player, who does not look at his cards, but what to do with a real person? I realize this is complicated, but maybe some links or articles?

[/ QUOTE ]

Great question.

Unfortunately, I don't know of any "silver bullet" answer; a lot of it is just experience. I can say that in general, don't assume a straight, flush, full house is out there unless you have reason to think so. It's far more common for new players to lose bets by imagining monsters under the bed than to waste bets because someone turned or rivered a monster and raises.

That said, over time you just improve your judgement. The other day at the Showboat in AC in a $3/6 game, I flopped a nut straight (QT8 to my J9). By the river it was heads up between an older rock-type and me; I was acting after him. He had check-called the turn (an ace), but the river was another ten and he bet into me. I raised, figuring he could have made trips. Doh! He showed down tens full of eights. (He didn't reraise, fearing I had aces full.) I should have known that a player like that would never bet into me with less than a boat.

But that's rare -- online, without these visual cues and watching his play for a while, I would raise that without a second thought and call it bad luck the boat was out against me.

So the point is, you just learn with experience. Sadly there's no substitute.

[kleos]

The OP needs to be aware that you cannot play such hands weaker just becasue he gets sucked out, especially at the 2/4c tables. Stay aggressive.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
The game I'm playing ATM is 0.02/0.04 Limit Hold'em at Pokerstars. (BTW - is it ok for the beginner? Recommendations on something other to try? I'm mostly not talking bonuses here, but learning how to play)

[/ QUOTE ]

I've not played at Stars, but I might suggest changing to Pacific just based on Stars' rep for tougher play. I would think even at Stars the 2c/4c should be pretty fishy, but you never know when you might get a table full of serious newbies. I can definitely say that Pacific 5c/10c will get you used to the high-EV, high-variance game that you can expect in any low-limit game at a public cardroom, or any micro-limit game as you're working your way up.

On average how many are seeing each flop at Stars 2c?

[kleos]

Rarely below 50+% if ever. Never seen a full table have over 70% in a the few days i've been playing.

Maybe the weekend it gets high, though I havent played it yet.