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#11
12-09-2005, 09:43 AM
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Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
[ QUOTE ]
If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split. The problem here is you have to work out if someone is already holding a J - even if they do, opponents will need an A for the chop - i think for UTG to play this way AK and JJ are possible given the player's nature. In a way both shaft you because you're behind in both. With 4 unseen jacks, i would assign no more than 2 outs to them, 3 at the utmost; since either a) one or two are already gone and b) if someone else has an A you're splitting this devalues them greatly. I know i said 3 outs earlier but the more i think about this the more it's a turn fold... such a tricky hand. we need some MHHUSHers to read this. Btw, it's already on the shortlist for the digest. Pete 
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#12
12-09-2005, 10:10 AM
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Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
I'm going to count only your Jack outs to the nut straight as good here. That's four outs and you can call getting 9:1 due to implied odds.
If a T falls on the river, you can probably fold. If an Ace comes, I would check and maybe call one bet, but certainly not two. Queery for you: Why do you characterize 27/11/1.8 as Weak-Tight? Not enough preflop raising? 1.8 post flop seems pretty aggro to me. As far as public bathrooms in New York City go, I don't think there are any except at the beaches and some parks. The ones at Coney Island last year weren't so bad. Probably because most people have been in the water and their stinky butts have gotten washed.
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#14
12-09-2005, 10:23 AM
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Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
[ QUOTE ]
Im a MHHUSH poster. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] i apologise profusely oreo. I knew that too, for shame.
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#15
12-09-2005, 10:27 AM
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Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If a jack falls, how likely is it to win the pot for us (vs split) and how does this affect the number outs we can assign them? [/ QUOTE ]Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split. [/ QUOTE ] Where can this be found? [ QUOTE ] With 4 unseen jacks, i would assign no more than 2 outs to them, 3 at the utmost; since either a) one or two are already gone and b) if someone else has an A you're splitting this devalues them greatly. [/ QUOTE ] This makes sense to me. I'll revise my estimate from 4 outs to an optimistic 3. You would want 15:1 for that. Your're unlikely to collect three more bets from each of your opponents on the river if a J came, and if you did it would almost certainly be because someone else had the nut straight for a split. Although it's a small chance, the possibility of someone making a flush detracts a little from Hero's hand also. I would say the chance of an Ace or Ten being good makes up for that factor, so I'll call that a wash. Regardless, I now think this is a Fold.
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#16
12-09-2005, 10:29 AM
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Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
It seems like your weak tight villain has AJ, JJ, or if you are lucky, AK. SB could have a wide range of stuff, but I guessed he has something that looks a bit like 99, KQs, QTs-Q9s, T9s, KQo, QTo-Q9o.
Unless you can find some other probably hands for villain, it is looking like we have 5% equity in this pot. That would be around 2.5 outs, which would make the title of your post pretty false. The pot is 9 BB, and if we wanted to call, we would need at least 10% equity. Fold.
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#17
12-09-2005, 10:43 AM
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Re: More outs than Spicymoose has excuses? Help me count!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yeah, Miller discusses cutting outs when you are pretty sure there's going to be a split. [/ QUOTE ] Where can this be found? [/ QUOTE ] SSHE p101: [ QUOTE ] Even if a card makes you the nuts, you should only count it as a partial out if someone else is likely to have the same hand, splitting the pot. This situation commonly occurs with one card straight draws. If you have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the board is K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], any ten gives you the nuts. But if you have several opponents, one of them may also have an ace. You could make your hand, but win only half (or even one-third) of the pot. If you knew someone was drawing to the same hand, you would count each ten as about half an out. [/ QUOTE ] Since i discount the FD from landing and someone making the flush, there are 4 unseen jacks, but we could only assign 2 outs to them.
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