#11
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Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
I would raise the flop in hopes of a free turn card with the intention of folding the river UI or debating a crying call on the river.
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#12
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Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
I think the turn is an easy raise, especially if you're seriously considering calling the river (frees showdown UI). This really looks like a 7 or small pp. Your raise really looks like trip kings and besides you have an amazing draw. If you don't bluff/semi here where do you?
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#13
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Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
[ QUOTE ]
I think the turn is an easy raise, especially if you're seriously considering calling the river (frees showdown UI). This really looks like a 7 or small pp. Your raise really looks like trip kings and besides you have an amazing draw. If you don't bluff/semi here where do you? [/ QUOTE ] You assume too much. Villain could be either bluffing or playing trips here. A pair may be most likely but it isn't nearly guarenteed. Villain is not folding a better hand so you are at best pushing him off a bluff with outs instead of collecting a bluff bet on the river. Small gain at best and often a small loss. You could easily be 3-bet by a king in which case you lose nearly an entire BB (compared to calling down) whether you call or fold. It's also possible Villain won't bet a small pair on the river, especially if the third club comes or another card drops into the T7 split. It sucks to buy a losing showdown that would have been free. A good compromise play is to call the turn and then look at the river. If you catch a counterfeiting card like T or 7 then definitely call. If you catch a scary card like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and he bets anyway then give up. If it comes down somewhere in the middle use your judgment. |
#14
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Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
Raise the flop and he will call then see what he does on the turn. If he checks to you which he probably will whether he has a King or not bet, and he will either fold or raise. And if he calls you are beat then.
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#15
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Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
I don't like raising the flop in hopes that this guy will check the turn. He just donked the flop into a PFR and 3-bet.
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#16
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Re: 3/6: AQ UI calldown
this is a very good post, but I disagree with you that villain will check all the rivers you mentioned.
I think the players donking after this preflop action will donk any draw scare card at least. FWIW, I saw a player in the exact same situation (holding mid flop pair) donking the river after I bluffraised the turn with a lot of outs. |
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