OE straight draw ...

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't....but I did some quick and dirty ish....and figure you're 40/60 at best vs. a range given to villian....

And that doesn't take into account that he's more likely to be playing hands that have hit here....rather than any two hands he limped with

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Given your new analysis, and considering the pot odds, are you changing your answer?

Scuba

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Dude, this wasn't new math.....no I'm not. I think your average chip gain is at best ~50-70 here. I don't think that necessarily makes it +$EV....

This isn't 4 handed, but I don't mind having a smally at the table, keeps opponents on their toes.

Yugoslav
PM me if u want to discuss in more detail....altho previously this hasn't worked out as you don't pm me back....bleh.

[Irieguy]

Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem. It happens in omaha tournaments frequently, but not in holdem.

I'm sure somebody can invent an exception, but this isn't it.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

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Dude, this wasn't new math.....no I'm not. I think your average chip gain is maybe ~50-70 here. I don't think that necessarily makes it +$EV....

This isn't 4 handed, but I don't mind having a smally at the table, keeps opponents on their toes.

Yugoslav
PM me if u want to discuss in more detail....altho previously this hasn't worked out as you don't pm me back....bleh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do I detect a little tone in your voice? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

The reason PMing don't work so well for me, as I'm soon to head to bed, and I'm onto new subjects in the AM.

But to this hand, I don't think 'minding' a shorty in the game has more significance over the fact that he's on my left. I really hate it when the shortstack is on my left, as he is VERY LIKELY to call one of my steal attempts. One of the reasons I am not interested in him calling a steal attempt (besides losing of course) is that it reveals my steal cards.

I think you are giving me more ammo for making a call here better. I'd rather he had more chips and fold to my steal attempts, than to continue to have a short stack on my left.

[ QUOTE ]
I think your average chip gain is maybe ~50-70 here. I don't think that necessarily makes it +$EV....

[/ QUOTE ]

What you're saying here is that this is a +CEV play, but not a +$EV play. OK, I can go along with that for now...



But, let's do a simple $EV calc based on your probabilities above.

Fold = 25.34% of the equity prize pool
Call, win = 30.69% of the equity prize pool
Call, lose = 22.3%

Calling = (.4)(.3069) + (.6)(.223) = .25656
Calling = 25.67%

Hmmm, a lot closer than I thought. But still +$EV.

Scuba

[BradleyT]

I highly disagree when the pot odds are there, you have a chance to knock someone out, it gives you a big chiplead, etc.

But since you're one of the 1TT "clique" members there's no point in discussing it, you must be correct.

[Scuba Chuck]

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Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem. It happens in omaha tournaments frequently, but not in holdem.

I'm sure somebody can invent an exception, but this isn't it.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely understand your point. Here's my invention, I guess. What if there's a very high probability your opponent is on a bluff?

[wuwei]

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Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this statement need some sort of qualification involving pot odds?

[Irieguy]

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I highly disagree when the pot odds are there, you have a chance to knock someone out, it gives you a big chiplead, etc.

But since you're one of the 1TT "clique" members there's no point in discussing it, you must be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Always nice when my opinion inspires disdain for no reason whatsoever.

Irieguy
Who may be growing weary

[Scuba Chuck]

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Always nice when my opinion inspires disdain for no reason whatsoever.

Irieguy
Who may be growing weary

[/ QUOTE ]

I was kind of hoping we'd just not address his comments, as I respect your comments and Bradleys (at least with regards to poker).

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling on a draw when you can't possibly win any further chips when you make your draw is almost never correct in holdem. It happens in omaha tournaments frequently, but not in holdem.

I'm sure somebody can invent an exception, but this isn't it.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely understand your point. Here's my invention, I guess. What if there's a very high probability your opponent is on a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I would like to have a hand that could beat a bluff.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

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Then I would like to have a hand that could beat a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough...