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#2
12-07-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
If villain showed me jacks I would call.
Because the expected value of a 160K stack with 16 players left is alot more than twice the expected value of a stack with 80K... to me. 
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#3
12-07-2005, 04:20 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
and whats the expected value of ZERO?!
btw, i fold this.
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#4
12-07-2005, 05:58 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
I don't think you can fold here. I think you call and hope the 4th spade doesn't hit. In fact pray that the spade doesn't hit. Think about it from his shoes. Why would he put you on a duece if you haven't played a hand. He most likely has an ace with a high spade, maybe ace jack. I think you have to call here.
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#5
12-07-2005, 06:04 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can fold here. I think you call and hope the 4th spade doesn't hit. In fact pray that the spade doesn't hit. Think about it from his shoes. Why would he put you on a duece if you haven't played a hand. He most likely has an ace with a high spade, maybe ace jack. I think you have to call here. [/ QUOTE ] lolz. i think that the beginning of this thread, the part where you put your opponent on a range, and then proceed, is reasonable. the parts that include "i know i'd have the worst of it, so i call instantly" not so much. c
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#6
12-07-2005, 06:33 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can fold here. I think you call and hope the 4th spade doesn't hit. In fact pray that the spade doesn't hit. Think about it from his shoes. Why would he put you on a duece if you haven't played a hand. He most likely has an ace with a high spade, maybe ace jack. I think you have to call here. [/ QUOTE ] Are you kidding?!...the 4th spade hits and we're golden!...lol..think u got the wrong thread here bud...anyways...after reviewing the mentioned ideas and rationale...I would fold.
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#7
12-07-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
Not an instacall. I'm treating this as a (slightly bigger) SNG with 17 players left. Calling coinflip has to be -EV here (not sure if MTTs can be ICM'd, but if they can, I'm somewhat certain this is -EV).
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#8
12-07-2005, 05:03 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
You can treat it how you like, but this is nothing like a Sit N go.
It's a 17 player tournament that pays 10 spots (relative to where everyone is at) The payout is increasingly top heavy. 1st 34.2% 2nd 20.5% 3rd 12.3% 4th 9.6% 5th 7.5% 6th 5.5% 7th 4.1% 8th 2.7% 9th 2.1% 10th 1.4% (taken from party website and adjusted as % of total distributed to top 10 places in a field of 400+) The average stack is 10XBB. 160K is 27XBB, (20XBB at 4k/8k) Just eyeballing it an 80K stack is worth about 8th-9th place (on avg). And 160K stack is worth 5th-6th. There are unlikely to be any very soft players at this point, the most important thing is chips. You are substantially overvaluing your ability to outplay the other players if you are willing to pass on your best hands with 13XBB left. Then again maybe you can fold and pick up aces next hand.
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#9
12-07-2005, 05:09 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
i don't know where you come up with:
1) your number for average stack left in the tournament, as you shouldn't be able to have one i think 2) any of a number of other things which are pulled entirely out of the air.
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#10
12-07-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: $33 rebuy, $10K first prize, 17 players remaining
1) avg stack taken from eyeballing sum of chips at table divided by # players at table (assumption other table about the same) (margin for error : small)
2) 80/6 = ~13 3) look it up yourself. 73% paid to top 10 spots. 1st spot gets 34% of this (X 73%)= 25% of total prize pool. I intentionally overlooked the small amout for 11th-17th which should be deducted from all the prizes but its not significant. On a personal note, your probably a dick. 3)
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