Bad time for a slow play?

[davidross]

He never had a chance to raise. He's acting first. He checked the flop and bet the turn.

[napawino]

(As others have written, including Sklansky & Malmuth), the necessary conditions to slowplay are BOTH:
1) A very good hand – likely to hold up as a winner
2) Likelyhood of another player making a 2nd best hand on future streets

These must also be weighed against the likelihood that the person who might be drawing might pay you off right now anyway. (Obviously there are some people that will pay you off with just a few outs, so there’s never a need to slowplay them.)

I’m not a big fan of the slow-play, but I think it’s reasonable to think that these conditions might have been met here considering the pre-flop raise & the board, so I’m not too critical of the slow-play. The thing you have to realize is that slow-playing – while sometimes very lucrative – generally increases your variance. Variance increases are generally not something I look for in tournaments.

Getting back to the specifics, I can’t come up with many hands that I would think would be dangerous here if you gave them a free card. The fact that this person played JT obviously opens up the possibilities a little more, so the list might include:
JT, QhJh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh. Ah xh is possible depending on the player.

The list of hands that could improve but still be beat would include:
KQ, QQ, JJ, TT, any pocket pair (that they would have played for a raise)

The list of hands that would probably pay you off NOW includes:
KK, AK, 66, A6 (maybe)

After looking over this list, I think your slowplay wasn’t a bad play – but you’ve got to be willing to accept the variance IMHO.

[adanthar]

Ahxh will call an all in on the flop, turn, turn.5, if you flash an ace, whenever. A big stack coldcalling QhJh on Party isn't folding this, either, though he may go all in when checked to on the flop (great!)

There's a lot of talk here about giving 'free cards' but this is not a hand where that applies. Giving a freebie will not alter the eventual outcome of the hand one iota unless he has EXACTLY one of three possible combos (QJ, QT, JT) and even then they can't both be hearts or they call anyway.

[woodguy]

I have a personal dislike for slowplaying anything unless I flop quads, or a very unobvious straight on a rainbow board.
That being said, I'd probably bet the straight to build the pot, whereas if I have the deck emptied with my quads I'll lay low.

I am of the opinion that when you slow play you give away the strength of your hand when you "wake up" on a later street and you scare your opponent away. (this is not always true, but mostly true)

With strong hands I prefer to build a pot from the flop on, so that my opponent feels tied to the pot and will call down to the end, or entice them to come over top of me on a later street.

In this case the pot is 5000, you have 5000. You can either bet it all now, or make a weak bet hoping he comes over top.

IMO the pot is big enough on the flop to want it now and you push.

Checking just allows him to improve for free and this is a dangerous board and while you have a great hand, its not the nuts and many cards are scare cards here, and you are going to get your chips in there anyhow.

A good rule of thumb is any two broadway cards on board gives a straight draw to your opponent (some go down to the 9 with this rule) and of course any two suited gives a flush draw.

On this board you have both draws and givien the pot size and your stack size, you have 1 bet to make.

All that being said, he probably calls and sucks out on you, but at least you don't feel dumb afterwards. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy

[gergery]

Bad spot to slowplay, I think.

Slowplaying is good when your opponent will improve to a 2nd best hand but not a better hand, or he’s likely to bluff. But here the only reasonable 2nd best hand would be if a pair hits a set (pretty unlikely), but its much more likely a gutshot or flush will hit. And bluffing is unlikely as there are both an A and K on the board in a hand where in EP player raised (and so is likely to have hit), so this is not a board many LPs will bluff at.

--Greg

[davidross]

Its a perfect spot for a slowplay, You're not folding no matter what, and you're much more likely to get some kind of action if you let him have one more card to hit his hand. I might have even checked the turn.

Bad luck.

[remen]

[ QUOTE ]
Its a perfect spot for a slowplay, You're not folding no matter what, and you're much more likely to get some kind of action if you let him have one more card to hit his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand could he hit that doesn't beat the trip aces, but stills pays off the trips? Maybe he could hit a lower set, but I can't really think of anything else. There is a much better chance of the turn/river bringing a card that gives your opponent the best hand (completing a broadway straight or a flush) than the turn/river giving your opponent the second best hand. I think the pot is big enough already on the flop that pushing is right.

[KKsuited]

I have to disagree with you David. This looks to me like an obvious spot to never slow play. What hands can be hit that don't beat you? Not many. Forget the fact you have trip aces, they're no good against the hands that are probably being drawn for. You also have to consider a slow play not only costs you the pot, but the tournament as well.

I wouldn't ever agree with this play, but if the guy wasn't covered it may help.

[davidross]

I wasn't thinking of it in terms of him making a 2nd best hand, but rather giving the big stack a chance to play bully. I have more outs to the full house than anyone does of hitting their gutshot, and I'll have more outs again on the river than someone chasing a flush. I'm never putting the guy on JT, I'm thinking more in terms of a pair JJ down. I just believe this is a case where I think my hand is worth more than is just in the pot already, and my chances of getting more by checking are higher than my chances of losing the pot by checking.

I'm certainly not criticising anyone who bets here, but I would check that flop 100% of the time. But I also check top pair a lot in NL tournaments. I'm pretty sure this is part of the reason I keep going 20 or 30 tournaments without cashing, but also probably explains why I seem to make high finishes when I do cash. I seem to be quite (too?) willing to take risks in these situations.

[AlwaysWrong]

I agree in general with David here, I think going for slowplay here SHOULD work fine. It's hard to see a player cold-calling a 3.5x the bb pf raise and then only planning on putting more chips in the pot if they hit. I believe that if your opponent had any other hand than a gs straight draw he would have bet at this pot. Open-ended, top pair, complete miss, he would have bet, and you would have had him in oodles of trouble.

You pretty much ran into the only flop where your play doesn't work out, and then the only turn where you really pay for it. Tough luck.

Given the quite loose nature of your opponent, though, I can see making a weak lead at this pot, and hoping they make a move overtop. If they don't you can check the turn, hoping that they read it as, "I had to take a stab on the flop, but I have nothing."