20/40 top set

[AZK]

yes

[AJo Go All In]

i strongly prefer a bet here and usually all of it. it is too likely that the guy has some medium-strength hand that he will call you with but will definitely check with. too likely he'll give up on a draw if you check considering he probably has marked you as "crazy" and will be less likely to bluff you.

[Howard Treesong]

[ QUOTE ]
yes

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised that you think so: that seems to be a horrible Villain holding to justify a $3K call with 1700 in already. Accepting your premise that a flush draw is a material part of his range, then isn't a river check a better line? His busted draw can't call a chip; but it might consider a bluff. And it's not clear to me that you're giving away much EV to the rest of his range: the money is going in if he has a set; the only real question is his line if he's holding two pair. On that board, two pair looks strong; it might well bet.

IMHO, of course.

[Your Mom]

I'd throw up if 2 pair checked it back to me. I bet it all here.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
yes

[/ QUOTE ]

Are these more likely than a real hand? How often do you bet down like this with air? Do you really expect him to bluff here? I push.

I am not in the push camp. I think by pushing you give this guy an opportunity to fold.

I like a bet of around $4.5K on the river. This will ensure a call if he does in fact have 2 pair or a set. Granted he would call your push if he had a set, but I would rather guarantee myself at least another $4.5K on this hand. I think a push makes him fold 1 pair and 2 pair hands.

Obviously if he missed his draw he is folding on the river to a large bet anyways.

I definitely don't like checking here, he has shown his willingness to call, so BET.

[cero_z]

Hi AZK,

Push.

[Matt Flynn]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi AZK,

Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[riverboatking]

can you describe the villian?
i'm assuming this is at the commerce.

ok so i have a hard time believing this guy has a set as i think we hear about it on the turn.

the question is will he bluff a busted draw here if checked to?
if you don't think he'll do OFTEN then push.
for me personally i push here almost always.
remember it only has to work like 40% of the time to make it +EV.

the only aside to this is that in live games ppl are much more likely to give you credit for a hand when you push all-in on the river after leading flop and turn because very few players in that commerce game will fire three barrels.

[flawless_victory]

i just dont think you can expect this guy to bluff here... though it looks like his way most likely hand is some kinda big draw, i think you have got to push and hopefully he played QJ like this and you bust him.