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#11
08-09-2005, 02:17 AM
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Re: Brain teaser
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The game host eliminating all the wrong choices thus increases your chances greatly to being 50%. [/ QUOTE ] Wrong! [/ QUOTE ] Ok, its not 50% since the first door you picked is going to be 99.9% of the time wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Correct! [/ QUOTE ] More like 66% me thinks. 
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#12
08-09-2005, 02:37 AM
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Re: Brain teaser
What the
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#13
08-09-2005, 02:42 AM
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Re: Brain teaser
I've never understood this.
When Monty reveals the goat, you're essentially being given a new choice, right? You can switch or "check," and you've got a 50% chance of either being correct. It seems like you could just close your eyes, take a 20-second walk, come back and choose either door (which is what you're being offered) and your odds would be 1:1. How can this not be true?
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#14
08-09-2005, 02:42 AM
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Re: Brain teaser
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The game host eliminating all the wrong choices thus increases your chances greatly to being 50%. [/ QUOTE ] Wrong! [/ QUOTE ] Ok, its not 50% since the first door you picked is going to be 99.9% of the time wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Correct! [/ QUOTE ] More like 66% me thinks. [/ QUOTE ] ??? I was saying you would be 99.9% wrong in the 1,000 doors example I gave. Yeah, you would be 66% wrong in the 3door example.
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#15
08-09-2005, 02:49 AM
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Re: Brain teaser
[ QUOTE ]
I was saying you would be 99.9% wrong in the 1,000 doors example I gave. Yeah, you would be 66% wrong in the 3door example. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, you're right. I read too fast. But here's a question for you, what if I want a goat? I like goats. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Why is this stupid thread in OOT anyway? It belongs in probability. Unless, we're talking about goats, that is. Goats are gentle creatures that make great cheese. I would very much like to have a goat some day. Does it take a lot of work to care for a goat? Do I need to trim their hooves? Can they live closely with other animals, say a fish? How much do they eat? Can I keep a goat in a city?
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#16
08-09-2005, 03:00 AM
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Re: Brain teaser
The 1/3 chance you took when you picked the original door "sticks" to that door, it remains a 1/3 chance.
-Matt
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#17
08-09-2005, 05:28 AM
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Re: Brain teaser
must be the first day of school.
i heard this exact example w/ goats and cars my first day of prob/stat. i also heard the 1000 goat explaination. isn't that CRAZY how we should switch! anyway, i'm off to buy a lotto ticket
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#19
08-09-2005, 08:51 AM
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Re: Brain teaser
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#20
08-09-2005, 10:15 AM
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goats
Can we please start talking about goats now?
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