#11
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't have time to do the math at work, but I think that even given a pretty big calling range, this is still a push. [/ QUOTE ] Hero has T3o! Do the math??? Are you serious? And hero is not desperate for chips. Yes, he has 6BBs, as does another player and the shortstack has even less. If you think there's a good chance of being called here (especially after pushing the last two hands) this should be an easy fold. It's people doing crazy stuff like this that makes a little bit of patience a very +EV quality in spots like this. |
#12
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
Unless work has killed my brain, which is quite possible, I think villian is calling with 990 to win 1590, which is about 1.6 to 1. Right? blinds are 150/300, villian has 990 after posting. so 150 + 300 = 450 + 1140 (the amount of hero's bet that villian can win) = 1590.
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#13
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
I agree with this 100%, and I would fold. Given the same circumstances (Same stack sizes, Hero pushed last 2 hands, BB will have odds to call), what are you pushing here?
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#14
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
My point is that I don't think we can give villian an average calling range of more than about the top 30%. You seem to give him a much higher calling range but I think with the other short stack, there's a decent possibility he's going to try to wait it out. Sure some will call with any two here, especially after the last two pushes, but some will take a stance of "he's pushing everything, he'll be out soon. I'll fold and wait." So maybe a read beyond OP's own table image would be helpful here.
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#15
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
I read this thread and cant get exactly the point of the people who say to push it.
u have 10 3 off suite. it is realy stupid to push here for the following reason. this is a BREAK/MAKE hand if u play it. if he has a medium hand , you can be SURE he calls you . do you realy want to risk your tourney on that call ? if u fold here u have more chips to play and allmost 100% you will have a better chance to push with better cards. i dont see it as an EV question , it is just stupid to push it here since if he calls , you probably dead ! and his BB not worth it at this stage. |
#16
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
i think that villain is not calling any two, but he's calling a lot of hands. Q7, J9, 33, etc. he will be down to 1k if he folds here with the other short stacks at 2.1k and 1.8k. i think he's going to call you with a pretty wide range if he's any good.
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#17
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
OK, maybe my brain's not working right today. BB is getting 1.6 to 1 odds, right? Maybe it's a leak but I'm not calling with any two even from a very aggressive player with those odds. 3 bb still has a decent amount of fold equity when the chip leader only has 10bb. If my math is off, I apologize and i'll rethink the situation.
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#18
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
Of course the villian is not calling any 2 here. They should have a wide range, but to even discuss the idea that the BB will call with any 2 cards is absurd. Players at this level fold all the time when they are obviously pot committed and that's not even the case here. |
#19
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
[ QUOTE ]
3 bb still has a decent amount of fold equity when the chip leader only has 10bb. [/ QUOTE ] Then why do you feel so desperate to push with junk here from the SB when you have almost 6BBs? Villain probably is not calling with any two, but with a pretty wide range, especially after hero pushed the last two hands. |
#20
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Re: Do you like this bubble push?
any reasonable player would call this push with any medium hand, not top 30 . maybe 45 - 50.
short stack , the guy infront just push 3 hands in a raw. that is a call you dont want him to make. and u dont steal from people if u know they will chase you down. |
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