AJs, what the hell am I doing?

[Erik W]

You're right. I thought he added the sessions together when he
claimed the 2% but I realize I was wrong.

4% is like JJ+,AK,AQ.
I ususally fold in these situations.
Do I really have the odds to continue?

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
You pose an interesting question. I can't give a complete quantitative answer, but maybe this table will give some insight. I put together a set of possible raising hands, that add to about 4% frequency. The table gives the relative frequency of these hands, given that you hold AJs.
hand rel freq ahead on flop
AA 5.9% 16.7%
KK 11.8% 16.7%
QQ 11.8% 16.7%
JJ 5.9% 16.7%
TT 11.8% 33.3%
AK 23.5% 16.7%
AQ 23.5% 16.7%
AJs 5.9% 50.0%

100.0% 21%
My "ahead on the flop" column is very approximate, assuming a 1/6 chance of pairing a specific one of your cards, and neglecting opp's chance of improving. The latter makes these assessments optimistic. Even so, you rate have only a 21% chance of being ahead on the flop, against his range of hands. This doesn't auger well, HU.

What's confusing to me is that AJs is normally touted as a reasonable cold call hand against a sound raiser.

Hope this helps.
You're paying 2 bets to call a pot of 3.5 bets, a bit worse that 1.75:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is awesome, thanks!

Is there a poker program that calculates how often you'll be ahead on the flop with a given range of hands?

--Dave.

[The Nutz85]

You were correct to call on the bb with about 3-1 odds your equity if you put him on a range of hands like TT, AT, ect. is about 55% so getting 3-1 its correct to call on the bb. To cold call a raise with AJs is pretty much aother story then you are getting about even money and your not a favorite.
On the flop you did the right thing give it up if you did not hit the flop, because if you thought you were behind preflop which you prob were you are still after the flop.

[Bluffoon]

This post highlights a major problem with stat reads. Is he a PFR 11 or a PFR 2? With such a small sample who knows?

If I just called preflop I would put him to the test with a check raise on the flop and a turn lead. At worst the table sees that they had better be prepared to invest heavily to take your blinds.

AJs is a nice hand anytime. I often will three bet this and if I don't get capped I will lead the flop. This gives the PFRer an opportunity to get out of the hand without making any postflop investment and again shows you aren't going to roll over without a fight.

[The Nutz85]

i was going to suggest a check raise but what if he doesnt want to let go of his pocket pair? if you 3 bet preflop i suggest aggressive attack on the flop but since you smooth called you will have a hard time making even a intermediate player beleive you have his TT or 88 beat.

[chief444]

I'd play it the same. I'm not folding AJs preflop. When the flop comes Q-high and you don't really have a lot going you're behind a majority of the time and the opponent's way too loose/passive to try to push off a better hand IMO. So I can't see doing anything but check/folding the flop.

[Mister Z]

Folding from the BB would be rediculous with such a strong hand. I'm torn between taking the cheaper line that you took, or 3-betting PF to take control of the hand. If you 3-bet you can fire into him on the turn and will likely get a fold unless he really likes the flop.

As you played it, I like the fold. No need to get into a pissing contest over this tiny pot.

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
If I just called preflop I would put him to the test with a check raise on the flop and a turn lead. At worst the table sees that they had better be prepared to invest heavily to take your blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this be a better plan with a more ragged flop? The Q could well have hit him, and if it did I can't imagine laying down.

[Bluffoon]

Well if you get three bet or raised on the turn you have to probably let it go. You can always check fold the river if he just wont fold or even throw in crying call with your ace high if you feel it has a prayer. This doesn't have to work every time to be profitable and it is good for your image too. And remember sometimes along the way you will actually pick up a hand too.

I disagree. It can look like you slowplayed a big pair or you could have just hit a set or any damn hand with a queen could be scary to the PRFer.

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd play it the same. I'm not folding AJs preflop. When the flop comes Q-high and you don't really have a lot going you're behind a majority of the time and the opponent's way too loose/passive to try to push off a better hand IMO. So I can't see doing anything but check/folding the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. It's just not a good flop for you and the queen could have hit him. I have no problem letting this one go, and I'm not sure why others seem so inclined to put more money in the pot.