Is this normal (to be expected)?

[cartman]

I made almost exactly 2 BB/100 4-tabling my first 150K hands of 5/10 then made a couple of significant improvements and won about 2.25 BB/100 the next 50K hands and then broke even for the next 40K, during which time I am quite certain I was playing the best poker that I had ever played. My stats were virtually identical to the previous 50K hands, except for decreased aggression factors on the turn and the river that I am pretty sure were just a result of the fact that I wasn't catching as many cards (they have since returned to normal despite the fact that I have changed nothing about my betting/raising/folding criteria). My game was essentially unchanged, but the results were certainly different.

Have you made any changes that you are aware of?

Thanks,
Cartman

[MrBig30]

[ QUOTE ]

Plug in 18,300 hands, 2.0 for a winrate, std dev of 15.2, and a 95% confidence interval.

4.2 BB/100 > winrate > -0.2 BB/100

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you are to believe this it means you should have one of those every 800,000 hands or so. Probably a bit unlucky then? (or some tilt?) Or your winrate is not really 2.0BB/100 longterm.

On the other hand I had a 30K breakeven bit at 5/10 and still ended up with 2.7BB/100 total after 70K. Crazy game.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know the math (which is why I'm asking) is this normal? How likely is this to occur if my true winrate is ~2bb/100?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is painfully normal. In fact, much worse than this is quite normal. That said, you might not be a 2 BB winner and it does no good to wonder how likely it is that the variance is within the normal range for a 2 BB winner.

2.3 over 200K hands is very solid. I wouldn't really worry a bit.

Krishan

[kiddo]

If u play 18300 hands and win 0.32BB/100 and got your SD you can be 99% sure your true winrate is between
-2.57 and
+3.32BB/100.

http://www.svenskpoker.com/math.php?...Calc=calculate

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The more I play the more I realize that despite its robust aura and reputation, 100k hands is just a paltry paltry sum. Sure it can give you confidence that you win, but for nailing down a winrate with any semblance of certainty it still just isn't squat.

[/ QUOTE ]

well put.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always learn a lot in 100k hands, and the competition has always changed quite a bit. So IMO there's no way the winrate of the last 100k hands can be used to predict the winrate of the next 100k hands.

Remember poker is hard, and work and study accordingly. Good luck!

[Wynton]

What I wonder about more is the severity of short-term swings.

I ran very well in my first 7,000-8,000 hands at 5/10. (I won't bore you with the details of that run because I know it means nothing.) Over last 3,00-4,000 hands, though, I've had a horrid downswing, losing around 275 bb.

I'm well aware that these total swings are nothing exceptional in the big picture. But losing that amount over a seemingly short number of hands makes me assume that I must be doing something wrong.

I guess I'm wondering the following: notwithstanding that a person can run bad over x numbr of hands, shouldn't particularly steep declines over a relatively short period be cause for concern?

[Nietzsche]

I too wonder about the math of the following:

Last 7.4K hands at 10/20: -3.25BB/100
First 35K hands at 10/20: 3.6BB/100

The downswing is approaching 250BB, I have lost for the last 6 days straight. I never had a downswing above 160BB in over 150K hands at 5/10 and I only had one losing week the last 6 months. Now I am starting to question if I will ever be able to win, even for a day... What a crazy game.

Edit: Well according to Kiddo's calculator this could happen more than 1% of the time.

[MrBig30]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm wondering the following: notwithstanding that a person can run bad over x numbr of hands, shouldn't particularly steep declines over a relatively short period be cause for concern?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think losing 275BB is always cause for concern, and a good reason to take a hard look at your game, and maybe get someone else to do it for you, maybe even hire a coach. That said, it is probably normal. Just a good reason to work even harder on your game.

[Subfallen]

Variance has a way of knotting up your insides so bad that the toilet bowl you're vomiting into becomes your entire perspective.

So I want you to step back and remember that you're winning an admirable 2.1 BB/100 over 208k hands---you definitely play quite good and have nothing to worry about.

But simultaneously note that sxb just might be the best 10/20 regular in the world (3BB/100 over 500k), and he's had a 650BB downer.

This too will pass, this too will pass...

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey guys,

My last 18,300 hands I'm at (.32) bb/100 at 10/20 (previously at 2.3 over 190k hands w/variance of 15.2 per 100).

I don't know the math (which is why I'm asking) is this normal? How likely is this to occur if my true winrate is ~2bb/100?

Just never had anything like this happen before which is why I'm asking...

___1___

[/ QUOTE ]

I could be wrong, but didn't you once post that you won for 21 consecutive days and never had a downswing more than 150BBs? Maybe it wasn't you, but whomever it was couldn't believe that big downswings happened to so many people.