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#11
06-27-2005, 10:54 AM
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Re: Live 10/20 NL Bellagio Hand
I am pretty convinced anything other than pushing or checking is bad, for the usual reasons. to me the issue is whether or not he'll call, because I just don't think villian checks two pair here with those stacks and that action. I think online the safe/standard play is to check and win the pot, but in a live game you can often get a good enough read to value bet.
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#14
06-27-2005, 12:24 PM
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Re: Live 10/20 NL Bellagio Hand
Does everyone agree with the continuation bet into 4 callers? I doubt I would bet this one.
Also, its obvious to US that hero has AK, but if the 7,5 hand wasnt long ago, villain might call a small river bet with his 99 or whatever he has.
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#15
06-27-2005, 12:56 PM
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Re: Live 10/20 NL Bellagio Hand
[ QUOTE ]
I would either check behind or stick in his $850. I'm wavering on which way to go. Hard to decide not being there. [/ QUOTE ] Why is betting 400ish bad? He can very well call with a smaller pair IMO. I dont know if he calls 850 tho.
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#16
06-27-2005, 01:07 PM
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Re: Live 10/20 NL Bellagio Hand
betting 400 is in general bad because he raises with hands that are beating you and calls with hands that aren't, so you're missing out on some value by allowing him to dictate the price of the showdown.
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#17
06-27-2005, 01:14 PM
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Re: Live 10/20 NL Bellagio Hand
Do you think he checks something like AJ on this river? If hero's hand is so transparent then villain would likely bet knowing hero will probably call. Depends on hero's image, if hero constantly overbets then stacking him aint so bad.
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#18
06-28-2005, 12:11 AM
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Re: Live 10/20 NL Bellagio Hand
Oh, Hell! Coltrane's in the 10/20; I thought that game was supposed to be soft. At least it sounds like you're outta town before I get in. On to the hand:
I think you raised too small, unless you had some ulterior motive (like some dude behind you was reraising a lot, or you suspected one of the limpers might have a huge hand, and wanted to find out cheaply). Mostly, I think your hand just plays easier with one caller, and you set it up for about 3. Still, you're hand's suited, and it sounds like you were running good; nothing wrong with playing a big pot there. On the flop, I'd occasionally bet, but usually just check it. When I did bet, I'd pot it; I really think you get a ton more folds with that bet than with a 2/3 bet. Good check on the turn, and I'd bet the river for value, but enough to look like it might be a weak bluff (~300), due to the hand you showed down earlier. If not for that hand, I'd check unless the guy was a donkey. I don't think moving in has much merit here, because a weaker hand is so weak given the board, that it probably won't feel like trying to pick off a big bluff. It does seem like you're ahead an awful lot, though, given his river check. AJ has a very obvious bet right there.
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#19
06-28-2005, 12:28 AM
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thoughts/results
some good replies and pertinent discussion guys.....I'll give you my thoughts....
first off, the flop bet is definitely questionable.....5 guys in the hand and so I usually don't bet there, but, I bet in this case when it was checked to me because: it was a nice little preflop pot with $300 in there, it was a very raggedy flop, I was pretty protected from someone making a move because of the number of players in the hand, and if I got any action I didn't have any tough decisions because I didn't have anything.... when SB called me and then checked the turn AND checked the river, I really put him on like just a jack or something of that sort - I just couldn't see him checking three times with a hand that beat me....that was my read, so when the ace hit the river and I asked myself if I should check behind or value bet: my answer was value bet.....so how much to bet then?..... I'm surprised at the number of advocates of a $400-ish bet....I think that clearly the worst bet is something in that $300 to $550 range (see turnipmonster's reply).....personally I think the best bet is either $200 or $800.....and of those two amounts, the decision should be based solely on what I think he thinks of me.....he's just not gonna call $800 with a worse hand on that board unless I have given him reason to up until this point (which is why I think actually $800 would be a great bet if I had 88 or something like that)....in retrospect, I don't think at the time I had given him reason to look me up for $800 and I think he'd fold a very large percentage of the time with a worse hand (which is not true for a lot of other games/situations I've been in because of my image/the opponent/etc.).....$200 is a great bet because it would be a real tough fold for him getting 4.5 to 1.....also, he wasn't the type nor was it the type of situation for a bluff raise, so I wouldn't have felt bad laying down to a checkraise all-in getting a little over 2.5 to 1...... as for the actual hand, I bet $300 and he checkraised all-in and I hemmed a little and finally decided I had to call getting almost 3.5 to 1 on a big pot....I think it was my worst bet in my entire 5-day trip to Vegas......he showed a set of threes.....I guess I give him credit for having the discipline to check knowing I'd make such an awful bet, but I'm not sure I like the way he played his hand - by the time he got the money in (after giving me two free cards) I could've easily had KQ or a set of aces.... thoughts?....
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#20
06-28-2005, 12:41 AM
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Re: Live 10/20 NL Bellagio Hand
[ QUOTE ]
At least it sounds like you're outta town before I get in. [/ QUOTE ] hee hee, even if I was still in town bro, I'd get up from the table as soon as I saw your ass in the poker room.... [ QUOTE ] and it sounds like you were running good [/ QUOTE ] I was the first night.....and then I lost to a one-outer in TWO different big pots and rethought that notion..... good luck in the main event man....
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