Super Tuesday Hand - JJ against chip leader with 15 left

[Simplistic]

I'm pushing here without taking a minute to look back.

raise size is funny and he is UTG. but barring that, he's come over the top with 99, and he could be positionally clueless.

only thing I don't like is the size of his raise.

[Sam T.]

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only thing I don't like is the size of his raise.

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Yeah, but with the blinds this high, I'm not going to get too excited about it. At this point anything more than a min-raise is "real". Could be a AA-QQ, could be AK-AJs, hell it could be 98s and he wants to find out how low of a raise will take down the blinds. It's not like he has to worry about someone calling off 20% of their stack with a speculative hand.

[Lloyd]

Here are some of the things that I was thinking about:

1) Why did he raise just over 2 BBs? That was the first time I had seem him make that small of a raise.

2) If I push, what is the liklihood that I will only be called by AA-QQ, AK-AQ? There is obviously a chance he has a smaller pair, but like I said I didn't see him do anything too crazy. And I do think he understands the gap concept as while he was raising and pushing with somewhat marginal hands he usually had something pretty decent when he called.

3) If I call, what hand range am I representing? That is partially why I was so confident that if I called it would be folded to the villain or if someone played they had a monster. If he had KK or QQ could I get him off the hand if an Ace hit the flop? While I'm in a pretty small chip position I'm still 25% of his very comfortable stack so if an Ace hit and he didn't have one would he call (presuming he doesn't push first)?

[ QUOTE ]
Here are some of the things that I was thinking about:

1) Why did he raise just over 2 BBs? That was the first time I had seem him make that small of a raise.

2) If I push, what is the liklihood that I will only be called by AA-QQ, AK-AQ? There is obviously a chance he has a smaller pair, but like I said I didn't see him do anything too crazy. And I do think he understands the gap concept as while he was raising and pushing with somewhat marginal hands he usually had something pretty decent when he called.

3) If I call, what hand range am I representing? That is partially why I was so confident that if I called it would be folded to the villain or if someone played they had a monster. If he had KK or QQ could I get him off the hand if an Ace hit the flop? While I'm in a pretty small chip position I'm still 25% of his very comfortable stack so if an Ace hit and he didn't have one would he call (presuming he doesn't push first)?

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1) I agree that the raise size is scary, but as someone else mentioned, given the stacks at the table, it's perfectly reasonable.

2) Let's say that villain made this raise with 88+ (37), AT+ (56). (I think he could've done it with much less based on read.) Ignoring others at the table, if villain is omniscient and calls you only with JJ+(19), AQ+ (32), you're getting called (19+32)/(37+56) = ~55% of the time and you have 43% equity, making the play easily +cEV.

So, if you push and turn your cards face up, the play is +cEV even if villain was on a pretty tight raising range for a LAGgy big stack.

Given that, this is an easy push.

3) If BB or SB has 22-88, they've got good implied odds to play for set value for 5k with a stack of ~60k with 24k in the pot and two players in (one a LAGy big stack).

I hate your KK, QQ argument because it's clearly a disaster if villain has a hand with an A that he would've folded preflop (which is more likely than KK, QQ).

[Sam T.]

I assume that there is an arugment to be made against pushing, but I can't figure out what it is.

I call and see the flop. If there are overcards I get very cautious and fold to any bet and check if checked to me. If undercards flop, and if checked to me I put in a bet 10K to 15K. If he c-bets (expected since he sounds aggressive), then it becomes a reraise all-in or fold. If I hit a set then [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] I'm gonna get some more of his chips. I'm not worried about the luck factor since that is not quantifiable nor controllable. I've made mistakes in the past overplaying JJ, so I would play them cautiously here.

[woodguy]

I push for a couple of reasons.

1) I don't really want to see a flop with overcards and have him bet me off best hand since he acts first

2) I don't want to give the BB odds to call

3) I don't want someone to push for a squeeze behind me, because if UTG calls I have to fold.

4) There is 15K in the middle, if my push folds worse hands than mine I'm ok with adding 30% to my stack without showdown.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Roman]

Mooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[illegit]

Turbo push. Your position kinda sucks, but so does your chip stack and you have a great hand.

[Tyler Durden]

I'll buck the trend and say that I don't think it's an autopush. Depending on my read, I might be content to flatcall here and see a flop, especially if I thought the pot would still be contested heads up.

I was in a situation exactly like this one at the final table of a $100 on Party about a year ago where I was the 2nd or 3rd biggest stack. UTG (chipleader) raised and I was next to act w/ JJ and pushed. He called w/ AK and flopped me nearly dead.

If he folds the hands like smaller pairs to a reraise, you lose nothing by flatcalling, other than giving him the chance to hit a 2 outer. But I think that's a risk I'm willing to take. If the flop looks scary you can get away from the hand w/o much damage to your stack.

Based on your relative skill level and your stack relative to the raiser, I don't like a push. Especially if you only get called by hands that have you in bad shape and coinflipping hands.