AK vs Strassa

[IHateCats]

Hm, UTG raiser, check/calls pot sized turn bet with an A on the board against loose/aggressive player with position on him on board that's becoming increasingly draw heavy. What the hell else do you think Strassa is putting him on other than AK, AQ, or a big pair like KK or QQ not buying Strassa has the A? In short he's diagramming a big pair for his very, very aggro & dangerous opponent who will likely take it away from him if the obvious flush draw hits whether he has it or not. Strassa likely doesn't believe he's on AA, AsKs or AsQs since neither of those hands is likely to slow up here on this board.

[Popinjay]

That river is one of the best bluff cards for Strassa. That is if he's bluffing.

[EverettKings]

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you say you're not giving him credit for a hand, but failed to mention what you put him on. what hands is he bluffing with here? what hands is he betting for value? over that range of hands, how many is kane beating?

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As for hands he could be bluffing with, they could be KT or Ax type hands, where his turn bet was to find out where he's at, and the river he knows he's beat but figures this is a great spot to take the pot down. I doubt it's two total rags, but that's possible as well. More likely he thought something like this:

"Preflop raise, I have QTs, let's have a look at this flop I'm in position. Hmm he potted the flop. Standard continuation bet, I have second pair. Let's see if he follows up on the turn. He checked. Giving up on the pot or checkraising me? Let's find out where I'm at. Weird, he called. Must have me beat, proly a made hand like AQ or something. River 9spade. Wonderful card to blast him off his shaky hand, no way he can call this without a beast, which I doubt he has given the action."

I think the odds of him playing a hand that beats Kane this way are very slim. As I said before, I doubt he could reasonably expect more than a fold with that river bet on that board given that action.

If you disagree, what do you think his hands could be here? And his thinking?

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the interesting part of the hand is the turn I think. betting can put kane in a tough spot, and checkraising won't get him to make a big mistake, I think I like the the check call.

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I agree. But then you really should call the river.

Kings

[Laomedon]

You made my point for me. The check on the turn can indicate many things that I suggested (a scared underpair, a failed continuation bet on a missed flop, although considering Hero's position this is less likely) the flat call on the turn is another story.

The turn call suggests to strassa that Hero has a made hand, but one that he's not secure about playing OOP against a tricky opponent.

My recommendation of leading the turn makes the hand slightly easier to play. You lead and strassa raises, give it up. If he calls, well then you're probably [censored] but you're going to lose the same amount if you check/call the turn and then fold the river. So at least leading the turn keeps you in control of the hand to some degree. It could very well dissuade strassa from staying in the hand, and it also makes it much more difficult for him to try and take the pot away from you on the river if he is holding junk.

This is simply my thinking, it could very well be flawed. If it is, I would like to hear why a check/call on the turn is optimal in this spot.

[EverettKings]

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You made my point for me. The check on the turn can indicate many things that I suggested (a scared underpair, a failed continuation bet on a missed flop, although considering Hero's position this is less likely) the flat call on the turn is another story.

The turn call suggests to strassa that Hero has a made hand, but one that he's not secure about playing OOP against a tricky opponent.

My recommendation of leading the turn makes the hand slightly easier to play. You lead and strassa raises, give it up. If he calls, well then you're probably [censored] but you're going to lose the same amount if you check/call the turn and then fold the river. So at least leading the turn keeps you in control of the hand to some degree. It could very well dissuade strassa from staying in the hand, and it also makes it much more difficult for him to try and take the pot away from you on the river if he is holding junk.

This is simply my thinking, it could very well be flawed. If it is, I would like to hear why a check/call on the turn is optimal in this spot.

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The only problem with leading the turn here is that if you don't take it down, life get's very very tricky. You're now OOP in a big pot vs you-don't-know-what hand while he has a pretty damn fine idea what you have. Meh...

[RollaJ]

I think the big question is: What do you put him on, when the turn hits knowing that he smooth called $80 from an UTG raise preflop? IMHO thats your biggest piece of information that you seem to be ignoring. Its hard to believe a good player will call that $80 with A-T, A-8, A-6, especially with no callers inbetween. PLUS he called the $190 on the flop. So you'd have to assume it wasnt the "8" that helped him. So basically you are looking at 66, TT, AK, AQs, KQs,KK, QQ, JJ. As you can see you are way ahead of most of these hands, that will all most likely bet as soon as you show weakness and check.
IMO you flubbed it when you lost control of the hand by checking the turn. You should have been the one betting the turn for about $600. You would have taken it down there the overwhelming majority of the time. If called or raised after a second confident bet, youd have a much easier time figuring out where you stood in the hand

[KaneKungFu123]

I dont think he calls with AQ-A2 preflop. On the flop, most of the time, he has:

AK, 66/TT, A flush draw like 4s5s (KK/QQ is very unlikely)

Turn:

i check, planning to raise. then dont. huge mistake.

River:

his big bet is probally AK the highest percentage of the time trying to push me off my AK. then he probally has a set. then finally a flush.

i really dont think he is bluffing here very often. but, youll have to ask him.

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I think the big question is: What do you put him on, when the turn hits knowing that he smooth called $80 from an UTG raise preflop? IMHO thats your biggest piece of information that you seem to be ignoring. Its hard to believe a good player will call that $80 with A-T, A-8, A-6, especially with no callers inbetween. PLUS he called the $190 on the flop. So you'd have to assume it wasnt the "8" that helped him. So basically you are looking at 66, TT, AK, AQs, KQs,KK, QQ, JJ. As you can see you are way ahead of most of these hands, that will all most likely bet as soon as you show weakness and check.
IMO you flubbed it when you lost control of the hand by checking the turn. You should have been the one betting the turn for about $600. You would have taken it down there the overwhelming majority of the time. If called or raised after a second confident bet, youd have a much easier time figuring out where you stood in the hand

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[KaneKungFu123]

he 'may' fold AK to a turn cr.

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you say you're not giving him credit for a hand, but failed to mention what you put him on. what hands is he bluffing with here? what hands is he betting for value? over that range of hands, how many is kane beating?

the interesting part of the hand is the turn I think. betting can put kane in a tough spot, and checkraising won't get him to make a big mistake, I think I like the the check call.

--turnipmonster

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[Jason Strasser]

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Its hard to believe a good player will call that $80 with A-T, A-8, A-6, especially with no callers inbetween. PLUS he called the $190 on the flop. So you'd have to assume it wasnt the "8" that helped him. So basically you are looking at 66, TT, AK, AQs, KQs,KK, QQ, JJ.

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Not really. I'm pretty loose pf especially with position and deep stacks. I could have an offsuit two-gapper here in theory.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

Kane,

I think you are absolutely right that I am not bluffing here very often. I will value bet sets and AK like this on a board like this. AQ is not really an option, I'm probably going to just check behind on the river if I had that.

However... This hand I had KQo. The flop call is pretty routine, at least in my world. So many people will fire one bet on the flop then give up with an ace on the board, or if they have a big hand I have nut outs so that's also a bonus. When you called me on the turn and checked to me on the river, I definitely thought AK/AQ, and I thought it would be extremely difficult for you to call a pot sized bet on the river. Plus, there are a lot of hands that make sense here that I would value bet like this.

I do think the turn is the interesting street. If you fired the turn I'm going to give up a vast majority of the time. I guess occasionally I might bluff-raise there, but not typically. As I mentioned before, I only call that flop because I can win the pot enough of the time when people give up on the turn.

Your plan to check raise the turn is decent I guess, as I would fold AK and a flush draw, but I'm not folding a set here, and I would put my range of hands on the flop call very similar to what you mentioned. I personally think you are better off firing two barrels at me, but I guess then you build a nice big pot and I could have you destroyed. The more I think about the hand, the more I think you played it well. I truly do not pull this very often.

-Jason