AI - hold, sell or hedge?

[jasonHoldEm]

[ QUOTE ]

An easier way to accomplish the same thing would be to just sell 4 Bo's (he's at $61 right now). This would net you $244 and give you a guaranteed $700 in the final, for $944 total.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably what I would do if I were in your position. IMHO, bo has an edge right now (because he's carrying more momentum into the final), but Carrie certainly has a solid chance to win as well. If you do this now then you can choose to either take the guranteed $700 or if you're feeling confident one way or the other after the final performance show you can sell some/all of the dog and keep your pick and try to score some extra cash.

GL,
J

Edited for clarity.

[Sintax]

I sold the 4 Bo's and locked in $700 for the finals, for a total of $944.

Holding Bo, I would then be risking $244 to win $400, which actually requires him to be a 63% or better favorite for this move to be +EV.

I think Bo is great, but I don't think I can justify him being that much ahead at this point. I also think $61 is about as high as his price will go untill next week and theres a good chance it will slide back down this week as well because people won't be scrambling to buy him now at this price, its a sellers market...

[jasonHoldEm]

[ QUOTE ]
requires him to be a 63% or better favorite for this move to be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure some/many will argue, but I think the final two are roughly Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] vs. A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] all-in preflop (Bo holds the ladies). He has an edge, but it's not a huge edge (it's not like he has Q5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] unfortunately), so good play.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qh Qd 975909 56.99 730541 42.66 5854 0.34 0.572
As Kc 730541 42.66 975909 56.99 5854 0.34 0.428 </pre><hr />