A little fun on the river. (or spend my money as you see fit)

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Button may have AA, AK, even 88 or 55. Depending on how tricky she is, A8s is a possibility. UTG+1 appears to have the flush and so it is unlikely that she 3-bets here. I don't think you'll make money in the long run by folding in this spot.

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What are the chances that a tight button makes it 4 bets with 88,55,A8?

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Very slim.

I play really tight, and there are times when I would cap with 88 if I knew I could get it heads-up or three-handed with specific players. There are also times where I would throw in the extra bet with A8s if I was certain of a volume pot with a lot of bets and a lot of players, as I would get the added bonus of having my opponents assume I have the best hand. I'm not saying that either of these are good plays. Depending on the player, this might be a possibility.

I still think AA here, but I'm not more than 92.6% sure of this.

[damaniac]

Another thing worth noting is that the initial raiser is (presumably?) a TAG, as is the CO 3-bettor. That should lessenthe chance that the button is capping lightly.

[cassady]

Button is most likely AA, but AKs is a real possibility as well here. Because of the potsize and overcall is right here, but I don't think I could make out a raise.

[toss]

I really don't think you can fold, so call.

[tansoku]

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...No one in their right mind plays any hand on the list above but AA like this. I think 55 would never play like this, maybe 88 about 10% of the time.


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Couple of questions: Does a loose/passive type play 88 like this at this limit?

How differently do you think the hand plays out if you 3bet the flop? I was under the impression that fast playing sets on boards like this was a good idea..

Hand 1: 69.5460 % { KdKc }
Hand 2: 06.6445 % { AA }
Hand 3: 23.8095 % { Tc9c, JcTc, QcJc }

[slavic]

but AKs is a real possibility as well here

Why is AKs a real possibility?
Preflop it makes since, on the flop it makes some since on the turn maybe but likely no, the river never.

We have a weaker player in the hand who defines the strength necessary to win, he's not 3 betting the turn with a non-made hand. Either player has to be full to raise. This player came in after two tight players already made it 3 bets with a cap.

Better yet there is only 1 way he or she can have AKs and 6 ways he/she can have AA. So we have to have a parlay that the player has that last way of AKs and totally lost his/her mind on the river around half the time.

[slavic]

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...No one in their right mind plays any hand on the list above but AA like this. I think 55 would never play like this, maybe 88 about 10% of the time.


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Couple of questions: Does a loose/passive type play 88 like this at this limit?

How differently do you think the hand plays out if you 3bet the flop? I was under the impression that fast playing sets on boards like this was a good idea..

Hand 1: 69.5460 % { KdKc }
Hand 2: 06.6445 % { AA }
Hand 3: 23.8095 % { Tc9c, JcTc, QcJc }

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It depends on the LAP but they normally don't get into to many 3 bet pots at this limit unless in the blinds. Postflop the better ones would play 88 the same, otherwise the worst would just call the flop, call the turn because it got scary but they have a set, raise the river.

Would they do this with 55? I wouldn't think so. THe loose passive, and loose aggressive players still tend to think a little bit.

As for playing this right, yes I think you have to play it fast just because of the nature of hte board. Flush draws will give you all kinds of action thinking they are getting much the better of it while your set has cut into them because of its redraw value. Personaly I'd 3 bet the flop and lead most (almost all) turns.