Showdown Raise

[brettbrettr]

Hey Will,

Hmmm, never have we disagreed so much [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. I'd check the flop, raise the turn, and value bet the river if it were a safe card.

Weird.

brett

[Scotch78]

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What was the exact flop?

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9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and so far the only argument for betting the flop that seems convincing to me is folding equity. It's entirely possible that nobody has a pair with this ragged board, and with three overcards to my pair outs, there are a lot of hands that might fold incorrectly. And if I'm really lucky, a bet could get it heads-up with the flush draw and buy the pot with a river bluff if the third spade doesn't hit.

Scott

[Entity]

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What was the exact flop?

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9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and so far the only argument for betting the flop that seems convincing to me is folding equity. It's entirely possible that nobody has a pair with this ragged board, and with three overcards to my pair outs, there are a lot of hands that might fold incorrectly. And if I'm really lucky, a bet could get it heads-up with the flush draw and buy the pot with a river bluff if the third spade doesn't hit.

Scott

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That's not really a convincing argument. Your FE is very small on this flop, and you're looking at an awful lot of flop/turn/river bluffing if you do get it HU.

Rob

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Will,

Hmmm, never have we disagreed so much [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. I'd check the flop, raise the turn, and value bet the river if it were a safe card.

Weird.

brett

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Not that much of a disagreement, really:

The more I think about it, the more I think we should bet the river if called on the turn. We definitely have value there. The turn bet will often be coming from a hand that is less than top pair. No need to take the free showdown here, as villain's range is still quite large after the turn bet.

I do like betting the flop, though, for all the reasons expressed. I think we should definitely be betting if we have a gutshot, or if the bored is paired below the 9 (even less chance our opponents hit anything).

I think the question of betting the flop may be one of "style" as the ultimate EV of the flop play is largely determined by how you play the hand on the big bets streets, and I'm pretty confident that both betting and checking will prove viable strategies with perfect play on the later streets. It's hard to know which is better as there are so many variables.

[meep_42]

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That's not really a convincing argument. Your FE is very small on this flop, and you're looking at an awful lot of flop/turn/river bluffing if you do get it HU.

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I disagree, I think the PFR will get a lot of incorrect folds on the flop, plus, with this flop, you can take a free card/raise/or fold on the turn when called with confidence exactly because it is a bluff.

This is an expensive line, as you need to bet a lot of cards on the turn and river, but I think a bet here may show a slight profit.

-d

[Entity]

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That's not really a convincing argument. Your FE is very small on this flop, and you're looking at an awful lot of flop/turn/river bluffing if you do get it HU.

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I disagree, I think the PFR will get a lot of incorrect folds on the flop, plus, with this flop, you can take a free card/raise/or fold on the turn when called with confidence exactly because it is a bluff.

This is an expensive line, as you need to bet a lot of cards on the turn and river, but I think a bet here may show a slight profit.

-d

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I really think if you're inclined to bet this flop because you raised preflop (which increases the chances that people check to you with a WIDE range) of hands here, then you should not be raising preflop.

But I definitely think you should be raising preflop. I just think y'all need to be a lot more cautious about spewing postflop with Jack-high when you're gonna have to have a LOT go right to take it down UI.

Rob

[jason_t]

Easy check.

[Entity]

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Easy check.

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You might want to specify that you are talking about the flop -- i.e., you play it exactly like me.

[jason_t]

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Easy check.

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You might want to specify that you are talking about the flop -- i.e., you play it exactly like me.

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But of course.