Made flush on the turn. River puts 4 to the flush. - Page 2

teajay · #11 08-03-2005, 10:12 PM

Do you really think that you are beat more than 95% of the time?

*Edit: In a pot this big and getting those odds, it would take one hell of a read to fold I think. Especially with no one raising.

GrandmaStabone · #12 08-03-2005, 10:12 PM

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I don't see folding here getting 19:1 with the third nuts and no action other than the PFR still betting.

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PFR still betting, one player with a hand good enough to call with, and 2 players yet to act.

teajay · #13 08-03-2005, 10:14 PM

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I don't see folding here getting 19:1 with the third nuts and no action other than the PFR still betting.

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PFR still betting, one player with a hand good enough to call with, and 2 players yet to act.

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But only two cards in the deck that beat us. You're still going to have to do better to convince me to fold

GTSamIAm · #14 08-03-2005, 10:17 PM

You don't have to win much. I could see you being ahead about 1 in 20.

Me and You · #15 08-03-2005, 10:20 PM

My point is that you know where the K Q 10 and 9 are, so that leaves the others holding either 8 or less for the flush. For you to beat them now on that board why would they still be in the pot if they did hold this. You also have to ask why the BB is betting. Preflop raiser has the pot I guarantee it. (95%)

Me and You · #16 08-03-2005, 10:23 PM

I disagree there are already two players that you have to beat and one still to act. I say give up this hand cause your odds of winning in this situation are less than 5% IMO.

However if the caller folded. This is a different story.

teajay · #17 08-03-2005, 10:27 PM

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I disagree there are already two players that you have to beat and one still to act. I say give up this hand cause your odds of winning in this situation are less than 5% IMO.

However if the caller folded. This is a different story.

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I'm almost certain there is somewhere in SSH that sais not to fold marginal hands for one bet on the end in big pots. If this isn't a marginal hand and that not a big pot, I'm lost.

Sure there are two to act behind us, but they have done nothing but call so far.

Me and You · #18 08-03-2005, 10:32 PM

It probably does say that. I havn't read it yet.
But The only scenario I can see that gives the OP the win is this.

BB is bluffing.
Caller believes BB is bluffing and hence calls the bluff with their 87
The person last to act was on a full house draw and missed.

Other than that situation I would say you are behind. With no more cards to come.

What do you think Teajay?

P.S. It says in Lee Jones book that it is often wrong to fold on the river with big pots however when you know ttht you are beat it is right to do so. Of course this is paraphrased but I believe this is one of those times.

xenthebrain · #19 08-03-2005, 10:43 PM

First off, you don't know that SB will call.

BB might be bluffing here or betting a good but non-flush hand.
He was agressive the whole hand through.

It's true, while a bettor can bluff a caller cannot and you need a stronger hand to overcall.
But he might aswell just have a low spade or a strong not-flush hand and doesn't believe BB has him beat and/or just wants to show down his hand.

We have the third nuts here and there are a bunch of hands that could call that we beat.
The pot is huge, IMO it's for sure that we win more than 5% of the time (even if it weren't 0.05/0.10 where a call would be even easier).

Me and You · #20 08-03-2005, 10:49 PM

Thanx Xen what hands do you think could call as this is where my decision is based. I believe that the calling hands would have you beat. as why would you stick around for a bet on the flop and a raise when the flush came on the turn.

Cheers

P.S. I am a noob so more than likely I am missing something. Maybe I'm just to weak