I can toss this turn right? - Page 2

krimson · #11 10-04-2005, 02:29 PM

The pot is so big on the flop and turn here. People could be calling on all sorts of draws, I think it's weak to assume that these calls mean a king.

I would raise the flop and try to get a feel for where I stand. This pot is big and I don't like the idea of just stepping aside because some people called a bet.

(edit: Actually a flop raise doesn't really accomplish that much, due to the size of the pot. But I think we should definitely bet the turn when checked to.)

kidcolin · #12 10-04-2005, 02:45 PM

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Think about it this way: if MP had a K, doesn't he raise the flop, either for value, or to put pressure on the button and get last action on later streets?

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Not necessarily. A lot of players wuss out there with even AK after the preflop action. He also wouldn't raise with KK some of the time. This hand played out in such a way that the flop action defines little about anyone's hand, except hero's unfortunately.

However, I still think it's way too weak to give him credit for a king.

me454555 · #13 10-04-2005, 02:46 PM

Not necessarily, and thats the crux of my dilemma. I think that given the pf action he might be afraid to raise a weaker K like KT, KJ. I wasn't sure of the likelyhood of him having a K but what hand is he calling 2 cold with that he bets on the turn with? He's not goining to bet a strait or flushdraw b/c the pot is too big for people to be folding. Furthermore, he'd be more likely to raise a strait or flushdraw than a K b/c he's gotta know his outs are clean. A K might not raise for fear of getting 3 bet w/a hand having little chance of improving. He's gotta be betting for value right?

#14 10-04-2005, 02:57 PM

I don't know that I would be betting the turn here because many good players will check-raise the turn with a strong hand after 3 players call on the flop. However, when he doesn't raise the turn, I would probably raise for value. MP probably has AT, JJ, or maybe TT. SB probably has Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. When I check the turn, I wouldn't know if I'd be raising, folding, or calling when the action gets back to me. I could be wrong here, but considering the action, I think you have the best hand.

kidcolin · #15 10-04-2005, 02:57 PM

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He's gotta be betting for value right?

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Perhaps, but not necessarily with a King. Could be 99, 88, TT (you lose), AT, QT. There are plenty of non-value bet hands he'll bet too. QJ, AQ, AJ.

After the two main preflop aggressors shut down on the turn, a player's betting range opens up considerably. A king hand is too narrow a range to put him on.

kidcolin · #16 10-04-2005, 03:00 PM

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I don't know that I would be betting the turn here because many good players will check-raise the turn with a strong hand after 3 players call on the flop. However, when he doesn't raise the turn, I would probably raise for value. MP probably has AT, JJ, or maybe TT. SB probably has Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. When I check the turn, I wouldn't know if I'd be raising, folding, or calling when the action gets back to me. I could be wrong here, but considering the action, I think you have the best hand.

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Poor hand reading. Reread all the action. Putting SB on Ax [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is wayyyyy too narrow. It's probably one of his least likely holdings. (If he was going to c/r Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], the flop was the place to do it).

me454555 · #17 10-04-2005, 03:01 PM

Yah, you guys are def right about that and I like your analysis. I think betting the turn is def the way to go. I dont know about raising the flop b/c sb's hand combined w/the K on the board presents a problem. Once he check the turn though, I think I gotta bet it. I'll post the results when the discussion dies down.

kidcolin · #18 10-04-2005, 03:04 PM

Yeah, I've thought about the flop raise possibility, and I think it accomplishes very little. Hands are calling that don't necessarily have a King in it, but you're still left clueless in a big pot. It might be for value, but it will be hard to tell.

me454555 · #19 10-04-2005, 03:06 PM

When he bets the flop, my range of hands for sb is AA, KK, QQ, Axh, JJ?, AK, KQs. Does that sound right? I called b/c I've got almost set value plus the bd flush. Once he checks the turn, I can prolly narrow down that range a lot and add some hands I didn't consider before

#20 10-04-2005, 03:08 PM

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why not bet the turn when it is checked to you?

[/ QUOTE ]b/c I had 2 people behind me who both called the flop. I figured one of them had to have a king b/c the only other draw is a flush draw and what are the odds of both having a flush draw?

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Well, that's a problem, isn't it?

You have 2 flop callers behind you and have no clue whether they have air, a draw, a low pair, or a king. This is one of those few situations where raising to gain information is correct. If you raised the flop, your turn decision would be much easier.