illogical blind move in...thoughts?

[edge]

This is a weird thread. First of all, it's not like this situation will come up 20 times in a row before I have a chance to win some more money. Second, my edge is going to be way more than 50% a lot of the time. Think about the times when I have a pair or better on this flop and he's drawing close to dead. If I have a random hand and this situation happens over and over and I take the bet every time I have a 50%-or-better hand, I don't think I'm going to be losing 20 times in a row.

Anyway, this is a one-of-a-kind situation for the most part. Assuming I can afford to lose a buy-in and not care, this is an awesome opportunity. It's like when you're BB and someone pushes UTG blind and you have 88 and it's folded to you. Sure, you're going to lose a lot of the time, but folding would be horrible because it's a great chance to win a stack at better-than-1:1 odds.

[mikech]

hey, i'd gamble too, i'm just saying i can understand if someone who's variance-averse wouldn't.

also, let's not forget to take into account the flop, that can change things a lot. for example, pokerstove shows Q4s as almost a 52% preflop favorite over a random hand; on an 883r flop, however, Q4s drops to a 43.5% dog.

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hey, i'd gamble too, i'm just saying i can understand if someone who's variance-averse wouldn't.

also, let's not forget to take into account the flop, that can change things a lot. for example, pokerstove shows Q4s as almost a 52% preflop favorite over a random hand; on an 883r flop, however, Q4s drops to a 43.5% dog.

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That's why we're talking about 50%+ on the flop.

Also, I think you should make sure he really hasn't seen his cards. If he looked while you weren't paying attention and has AA, that could really suck.

True. But even then you're calling $2500 to win $2700, which is close to even money. I'm laying down most random hands and calling with hands that have a better chance to win than 52%

[cero_z]

Hi ship it,

What are you talking about? He's seen his hand. He's not moving 2.5K in blind, giving you a chance to look at your hand. I call with K-high or better in the imaginary scenario in which he moved in blind. In that same scenario, I'm always against 83, and I hit running Ks to win with K2o, at which time the Bond girl to my left and the Borgata Babe to my right snuggle up for a congratulatory hour-long fellation.

And then I get a pony for my birthday.

[captZEEbo1]

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my cards, 97o

[/ QUOTE ]I beat my opponent into the pot!!!!11

[Smokey_McPot]

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What range of hands do you call this with if he hasn't looked at his cards?

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In this hypothetical scenario I say EV is EV. Whatever beats a random hand I call with.