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#11
04-29-2005, 04:55 AM
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Re: In Deep With JTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is all fine. [/ QUOTE ] No, it's not. Folding to the first bet on the turn is prudent. 6:1 is not proper odds for a 4-outer, and Hero very likely has less than 4 outs on average. Besides, it's going to get check-raised more than just a small % of the time, which makes your effective odds worse than 6:1. It is a common mistake among decent players to not consider the fact that they're not closing the action. This is a great example of why you need to be aware of this. [/ QUOTE ] The dude is right. You miscalculated your chopping outs at 2 which is completely wrong because the pot is likely getting chopped more than 2 ways and the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] makes 3 to anybody who's on a flush draw (and you know they're calling). Furthermore, you have bottom two pair and could make your boat and still end up losing (esp given there was a raise pf). With the turn cap and 4 to the river, you ended up getting 4.5:1 on your turn bets to what was probably no more than a 4-outer. If anybody already has a Q you *know* it's gonna get raised behind you. If more than one person does, it's getting capped. 
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#12
04-29-2005, 05:40 AM
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Re: In Deep With JTs
the turn is just frigging awful.
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#15
04-29-2005, 12:18 PM
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Re: In Deep With JTs
[ QUOTE ]
the turn is just frigging awful. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, it was. Not only a fold on the turn, but an easy one at that. Yuck.
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#19
04-29-2005, 01:12 PM
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Re: In Deep With JTs
1. Don't want to dwell too much on PF, but JTs is a little weak here. However I think it is close. Depending what I think of MP3 and what the Button is like, that would make the decision for me.
2. I would consider betting the flop, but I don't thin we are ahead. I think a checkraise is pretty likely. Also frankly I think the people that would fold probably would be correct to do so and pose little threat to us. So I don't mind checking. 3. At first glance I thought the turn was an easy fold when it came back to you 3-bet. Now I am not so sure. UTG+1 probably does not have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKo/s, or AQo/s. KQo/s is a possbility as is QJs. Maybe he would have AJ or ATs. After his three-bet though I think you have to credit him for a queen. Kind of the same thing for SB. The question becomes how clean are your FH outs. UTG+2 just called two cold in front of you, that could be a flush draw, a donk, or maybe another two pair. I think in this situation (I know that this type of thinking is discouraged), it is more likely than normal that our outs are either gone (in someone elses hand), or tainted. I am disturbed but honestly I guess I would fold. I will be interested to read other ideas.
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#20
04-29-2005, 01:39 PM
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Re: In Deep With JTs
I dont understand how J10s is a little weak here.
It is the most powerful suited connector there is and before you make the call you know there is going to be 4-5 people in for two bets preflop, which gives, in my opinion, more than enough to call. Also, the pot is so large that if you hit your draws you are in perfect shape, and any straight you make is the nuts [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I agree that I think that I would have played it the same postflop, but that is because I'm not that good, and after thinking about the hand I think folding on flop is best.
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