When it matters

[elindauer]

I don't play this game, but as far as I can tell, your turn decision is terrible. After the ace hits, you now have the best non-fullhouse. What does this mean? Let's look at the possibilities:

- you are behind. In this case, there are only two ways to draw out.
- catch the case 5
- catch a king and outdraw Q5.

Therefore, if we are behind, the only play is to dump the deuce.

What if we're ahead? What hands might be out against us? Well, there are plenty of drawing hands where it won't make a difference what we do. Top two pair. Pocket pairs that aren't 22. KJ and KT drawing for a straight. There are many hands where it does matter what we do though, they are:

- QT, QJ, drawing for a straight. In this case, keeping the king wins
- the case 5, drawing for a fullhouse. In this case, pitching the king throws away the best hand (!) and we go from 4:1 favorite to 14:1 underdog. Oops.
- a hand that contains a pair of deuces. This is the only case where keeping the 2 helps us.


It should be obvious that throwing the pot away to hands that contain a five in order to protect against a one outer IF someone has pocket twos is way wrong. I'd speculate that the flop play is also dubious, since king's full is so much stronger than fives full, but that play is interesting and has merit, since deuces are more likely than kings and you may be drawing against A5. After the ace hits the turn, there's no sense in thinking about A5 any more. The turn play is FPS.

-Eric

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
- you are behind. In this case, there are only two ways to draw out.
- catch the case 5
- catch a king and outdraw Q5.

Therefore, if we are behind, the only play is to dump the deuce.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the much more likely times when he is behind to a flush? He is dead to QQ, and it's a longshot for the case 5 and a Q to be in the same hand, so why not take the best chance to fill up, which is to keep the deuce.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the much more likely times when he is behind to a flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right on. I missed this. With someone check-raising 2 players, this seems pretty plausible. Good catch.

On the other hand, I wonder if he should fold the turn then? Now I'd need to look at the hand again. Anyways, you're right, drawing to the deuce makes more sense than I originally thought. Giving up the pot vs another five is painful, so you basically have to know you're beaten to toss the king, at which point, drawing at all might be suspect. I'm too lazy to work out how much was in the pot though, it's 7am here... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks.
Eric

[MrFeelNothin]

10.5 bets in the flop when he is deciding whether to call on the turn. However, I think he can also safely assume that Clark will call the turn raise, making it 11.5 bets and that he will collect at leats two bets on the river. Easy turn call, even if he knows he is behind to a flush.

By the way, beautiful story Tommy.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
10.5 bets in the flop when he is deciding whether to call on the turn. However, I think he can also safely assume that Clark will call the turn raise, making it 11.5 bets and that he will collect at leats two bets on the river. Easy turn call, even if he knows he is behind to a flush.

By the way, beautiful story Tommy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's an easy turn call if he knows he's behind to a flush. The problem is that he may be drawing dead on a paired board where everybody saw the flop with four cards and the turn was an ace. Not to mention that another solid player is in there too, so who knows if he's drawing to a similar hand (ie, he has the case 5 so that 7 of our ten outs are for half the pot). We could be behind to a flush but with Clarkmeister in with AQ5 so we're drawing to just the deuces to win. This talk of at least 2 BB implied odds is crazy, as he almost certainly makes less than that when you factor in the times he either pays off after missing or catches while drawing dead. In the actual hand the river was the perfectly innocent offsuit deuce and he got only 1.

I think the odds are there as the times he's live, he's really live, and Tommy played this hand well, but it's not as clear as you make it sound on the turn.

Good luck.
Eric

[mike l.]

wait a second. there are two kings gone. so it's correct to keep the 2.

post a better hand. i like all the other stuff.

next time im getting the french toast too.

[mike l.]

oh wait i forgot the king is your kicker. whoops.

anyway i just want it to go on record that in a field of gabe, clarkmeister, npa ed miller, josh w, snakehead, little michael davis, tommy angelo, and rick nebiolo, i, mike l. was the big winner for the night making almost $400.

[Zeno]

Mr. Dude,

The 'cube' that so dominants your current frustrations is called a Necker Cube, first put into published form by a Swiss crystallographer in 1832. By a subtle and strange coincidence the Swiss crystallographer had the same name has the cube. Remarkable.

Here is link to a very interesting and informative site:Necker Cube.

The site contains an applet program where you can manipule this cube by angle, tilt, and view and also has an accompanied explanation and discussion. This is most informative and illustrative of the illusions created by this cube and the why and whatnot and where for art thou particulars. I highly recommend reading the discussion and running the applet program. This may alleviate some of your frustrations, or not.

-Zeno

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
What does this mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Martin Luther used this phrase A LOT in his infamous Catechism. I always cringe now when I read this statement as Luther usually flys away into some especially amorphous metaphycial hooey after using it and I always suspect the same from others.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's look at the possibilities:


[/ QUOTE ]

See what I mean? Leave the possibilities to NPA's and their sordid ilk. In the end where does it lead them, down the primrose path of calling on the river with the worser hand. What Balderdash.

-Zeno

[Zeno]

An eloquent escapade is both word and deed.

-Zeno