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#11
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If anyone reraises you, you have to go all in (or call in case of button). The remaining players "might" be inclined to call 600 but not 1000 with their current hand. The best way to win this hand is to get everyone to fold (Thank you Captain obvious)
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#12
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Your hand is powerful enough to justify a big raise, but a t600 raise here instead of an outright push could possibly get more callers. You say BB is loose and aggro--chances are he's going to call with a leser hand preflop if you raise to t600 or so instead of all-in. If the flop helps him more than you, that t400 raise on the flop is useless.
Overall, I say push PF. There's a better chance of scaring BB away with a solid t1000 raise PF than a lesser t600 PF and t400 postflop. Also, a push just seems stronger on the bubble than a raise to 60% of your stack--it shows you don't have much faith in your hand, which gives BB incentive to call. Your hand should naturally beat a lot of other possible hands, so why risk getting beaten by a junk flop? |
#13
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] because at that point you only have 400 left and any bet you make after the flop will be tiny compared to the pot and will likely get called. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i know, but why is that bad? [/ QUOTE ] Because you're behind any ace, even a weak one, you're behind any PP, even 22...and against any Qx, Jx, etc. - you're only a 65-35'ish kind of favorite. Lots of ways to lose and bust out if you're called. [ QUOTE ] do i not want to get called at all? [/ QUOTE ] No, you don't want to get called. [ QUOTE ] maybe if the flop is really terrible for my hand, like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (off the top of my head), i can save my last few chips. [/ QUOTE ] And do what with them? You will then have ZERO fold equity with them, won't be able to withstand the blinds for more than two rounds, your shortstacked opponent will not make a move, and you'll be forced to value bet the next ten-or-higher card hand you have, likely as a significant dog. Just push this. If you push here every 1000 times you're in this situation, you will come out far better than if you raise slightly and try to save your last few chips. |
#14
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Total number of players : 4
UTG ( $1870 ) Button ( $1760 ) SB ( $2905 ) Hero ( $1465 ) Level:8 Blinds(200/400) Holecards: Dealt to Hero [7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ] FOLD FOLD ALL-IN SB [ 2705 ] Its 1065 more for me to call. Is my math right that its 1.75-to-1 for me to call? Which would mean I only need to win 37% of the time to show a profit (neglecting chip stacks, etc.) Thoughts? |
#15
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] because at that point you only have 400 left and any bet you make after the flop will be tiny compared to the pot and will likely get called. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i know, but why is that bad? do i not want to get called at all? perhaps a loose BB will call this t500 raise and when i hit a decent flop i can push maybe if the flop is really terrible for my hand, like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (off the top of my head), i can save my last few chips. [/ QUOTE ] OK so lets say you just raise to 600 with you K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], leaving you with 440. all fold to the BB who calls. flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. You have top pair, good kicker. Villain checks, So you bet 440 and am all in. You are now giving the villain 3.8 to 1 odds to call plenty large enough to call with almost anything. If he is currently behind he is not paying nearly enough to chase a possible flush draw, he is even getting about the right odds to call his under pair hoping to improve to trips or two pair. I may not have explained this as eloquently as others may have been able to, but I hope I helped you understand a little better. Also, you said if you dont connect on the flop you can fold and save your last 440 to fight another. If you are left with only this you are severly crippled and are so low that even very tight players will be willing to call your small all in, you could possibly get all 3 opponents calling severly decreasing your odds of winning an all in. Now lets consider you go all in and survive, you are still severely short stacked and need to go all in very quick again.and by that point the blinds have probably moved up at least to the next level. Hope I helped. |
#16
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Your math is right. In tournaments though, your expected chip return is usually not equal to your actual $ return. Without going into ICM and all that, think of the hand in expected $ return instead of chip return (that's one of the most important steps in getting good at sng's and all tourneys for that matter). For instance, even if you know for a fact you're slightly more than 37% to win this hand, it's probably better to fold (despite the +chip EV) and push the next hand regardless of your cards so you are putting the pressure on the other short stacks. However, since you ARE so short in this instance (and will be knocked down to ~800 chips after posting next hand), calling may not be so bad... I haven't done any math on it. But you get the idea.
Edit -- I'd probably still fold this and push the next hand if it's folded to me, hoping to double off of one of the other short stacks (since that's where most of your tournament $ will come from anyway... from one of the other shorties busting). |
#17
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Fold. Next hand if its folded to you, push with anything.
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#18
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thanks everyone.
where can i find a technical explanation of ICM? |
#19
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[ QUOTE ]
Party 11/1 Ive been playing a few of these lately and feel that I am doing very well but am a bit over aggro when it gets down to 3-4 handed. This was a hand that just came up that made me wonder. 4 handed. blinds 50/100 Stacks are: Hero UTG ( $1040 ) with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Button ( $700 ) Seems loose SB ( $2235 ) Playing decently tight BB ( $4025 ) Loose and aggro I have been very tight so far. What is my play here? [/ QUOTE ] This is actually quite close, but it is a push. Edit: I fold KQo here. |
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