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#1
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Re: 20/40 top set
yes
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#2
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Re: 20/40 top set
i strongly prefer a bet here and usually all of it. it is too likely that the guy has some medium-strength hand that he will call you with but will definitely check with. too likely he'll give up on a draw if you check considering he probably has marked you as "crazy" and will be less likely to bluff you.
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#3
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Re: 20/40 top set
[ QUOTE ]
yes [/ QUOTE ] I'm surprised that you think so: that seems to be a horrible Villain holding to justify a $3K call with 1700 in already. Accepting your premise that a flush draw is a material part of his range, then isn't a river check a better line? His busted draw can't call a chip; but it might consider a bluff. And it's not clear to me that you're giving away much EV to the rest of his range: the money is going in if he has a set; the only real question is his line if he's holding two pair. On that board, two pair looks strong; it might well bet. IMHO, of course. |
#4
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Re: 20/40 top set
I'd throw up if 2 pair checked it back to me. I bet it all here.
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#5
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Re: 20/40 top set
[ QUOTE ]
yes [/ QUOTE ] Are these more likely than a real hand? How often do you bet down like this with air? Do you really expect him to bluff here? I push. |
#6
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Re: 20/40 top set
I am not in the push camp. I think by pushing you give this guy an opportunity to fold.
I like a bet of around $4.5K on the river. This will ensure a call if he does in fact have 2 pair or a set. Granted he would call your push if he had a set, but I would rather guarantee myself at least another $4.5K on this hand. I think a push makes him fold 1 pair and 2 pair hands. Obviously if he missed his draw he is folding on the river to a large bet anyways. I definitely don't like checking here, he has shown his willingness to call, so BET. |
#7
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Re: 20/40 top set
Hi AZK,
Push. |
#8
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Re: 20/40 top set
[ QUOTE ]
Hi AZK, Push. [/ QUOTE ] |
#9
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Re: 20/40 top set
can you describe the villian?
i'm assuming this is at the commerce. ok so i have a hard time believing this guy has a set as i think we hear about it on the turn. the question is will he bluff a busted draw here if checked to? if you don't think he'll do OFTEN then push. for me personally i push here almost always. remember it only has to work like 40% of the time to make it +EV. the only aside to this is that in live games ppl are much more likely to give you credit for a hand when you push all-in on the river after leading flop and turn because very few players in that commerce game will fire three barrels. |
#10
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Re: 20/40 top set
i just dont think you can expect this guy to bluff here... though it looks like his way most likely hand is some kinda big draw, i think you have got to push and hopefully he played QJ like this and you bust him.
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