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#11
11-17-2005, 03:51 PM
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Re: My original raise was 300. I still had 800 chips.
M=7. You have two viable choices in my view: limp and call any all-in raise (or if it is a small raise, re-raise all-in) or just go all-in and see what happens. Personally, I would raise all-in about 80% of the time and limp the other 20%. If it was a super tight table, I would limp more often. With your stack size here, the best result is getting everything in pre-flop for a hopeful double up. If you had 2100 and raised and then were re-raised, you could safely fold. Your read that the Villian was a rock doesn't matter since you don't have a lot of chips. To answer your question though:
Bad fold. You must call here. -Gross 
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#12
11-17-2005, 04:17 PM
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Re: My original raise was 300. I still had 800 chips.
What can I say? I'm tighter than Harrington.
If I could see my opponents cards and know for sure he held A K then it's an easy fold right? 3 outer situation where it isn't worth the 800 to win 1550. I'm not exactly psyched to see aces, kings, or queens either. But lets say my opponent has a pocket pair jacks or lower and I'm getting the 2:1 pay out on the coinflip. How do we readjust my risk vs return in terms of my tournament life being at stake? Obviously I'm making this call in a cash game. But how about when I can't put more chips on the table? My next hand could be pocket aces. I still have 800 chips left. I can double up. I might move all in and steal blinds. And that's where this isn't an obvious call for me. I've had tourney success lately just being really really patient picking my spots as a small stack. But maybe I've just been getting lucky. If the math doesn't support it, I'd gladly call here. I just have no clue how to factor "survival" into those pot odds.
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#13
11-17-2005, 04:33 PM
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Re: My original raise was 300. I still had 800 chips.
[ QUOTE ]
But lets say my opponent has a pocket pair jacks or lower and I'm getting the 2:1 pay out on the coinflip. How do we readjust my risk vs return in terms of my tournament life being at stake? [/ QUOTE ] Unless you're already in the money or a few off the money this isn't even worth discussing yet. Trying to double up is risky, but so is trying to come back from a 7BB stack.
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#14
11-17-2005, 04:34 PM
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Re: My original raise was 300. I still had 800 chips.
[ QUOTE ]
If I could see my opponents cards and know for sure he held A K then it's an easy fold right? 3 outer situation where it isn't worth the 800 to win 1550. I'm not exactly psyched to see aces, kings, or queens either. [/ QUOTE ] If you knew he had exactly one of those, then yes, fold. But you don't have enough information to be that exact. [ QUOTE ] But lets say my opponent has a pocket pair jacks or lower and I'm getting the 2:1 pay out on the coinflip. How do we readjust my risk vs return in terms of my tournament life being at stake? [/ QUOTE ] Been over this many times. Common misconception. Winning tournaments requires that you take favorable gambles, not pass them up because you afraid of "tournament death". 46-48% to win getting 2:1 is a call. [ QUOTE ] My next hand could be pocket aces. I still have 800 chips left. I can double up. [/ QUOTE ] You could also get nothing better than 8 high until you're blinded out. Chaos theory: don't try to predict the future, make the best play you can now and let the future take care of itself. Let's look at the flipside of your reasoning. Say you do call, he turns over TT, you hit a queen on the flop and double up (you're at 2350 now). And THEN you get pocket aces. You bring it in for another raise and get two calls. You get all in on a Qxx flop against a guy with KQ and double up again. Now you're at 5000 chips and in commanding position. If you'd folded the AQ, you'd only be at about 1700 chips. [ QUOTE ] I just have no clue how to factor "survival" into those pot odds. [/ QUOTE ] There are differing opinions on this but for me the most successful way to factor in survival is "don't".
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#15
11-17-2005, 04:35 PM
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Re: My original raise was 300. I still had 800 chips.
From the looks of it, you only had 1100 left to begin with and were short stacked with 11bbs. To me this is an easy call because you have to take a stand at some point and survive a few all ins. If you win, thats a huge double up and you can go back to being rocky. Like you said, you never got any better cards and waiting on big PPs is a big mistake IMO. My guess is this guy had one of your outs or JJ to 77.
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#16
11-17-2005, 04:48 PM
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Re: My original raise was 300. I still had 800 chips.
How many chips did villian have? If he just barely covers you, he may be making a desperate play. If he's about 2-3 times your stack, seems very unlikely he's on anything other than a premium hand. Any more than that he could be bullying. #1 or #3 I'd call instantly, I think #2 is borderline.
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#17
11-17-2005, 05:09 PM
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Re: My original raise was 300. I still had 800 chips.
Even if you are up against AK, you are very nearly getting the right odds. 70-30 is 2.3:1 and you are getting almost 2:1. If you double-up here you'll improve to >2200. If you double on the next hand you'll have >1600. The odds are, you will not get a better hand than this before the blinds eat you. And remember, you probably have the best hand more than 55% of the time. The range of hands the Villian would re-raise with, along with the pot odds, chip stack size, and the fact that you have a decent hand makes this an MUST call.
On a side note, if I had played the hand this way and was faced with this all-in call, I would call with any pocket pair, any two face cards, and anything suited down to 8-7s. But OTOH, I would not have played the hand this way!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] -Gross
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#18
11-17-2005, 05:21 PM
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Re: My original raise was 300. I still had 800 chips.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My next hand could be pocket aces. I still have 800 chips left. I can double up. [/ QUOTE ] You could also get nothing better than 8 high until you're blinded out. Chaos theory: don't try to predict the future, make the best play you can now and let the future take care of itself. Let's look at the flipside of your reasoning. Say you do call, he turns over TT, you hit a queen on the flop and double up (you're at 2350 now). And THEN you get pocket aces. You bring it in for another raise and get two calls. You get all in on a Qxx flop against a guy with KQ and double up again. Now you're at 5000 chips and in commanding position. If you'd folded the AQ, you'd only be at about 1700 chips. [/ QUOTE ] This has actually happened to me many times. Last night is a good example: I was the short stack with 8 left. Went all-in preflop with Q-10, was called by JJ. Hit my queen on the flop. Doubled to 2000 chips. The blinds were 200-400. Very next hand was dealt AA. Was able to get it all-in on the flop. Doubled to over 4000. Very next hand, got KK. Doubled through again. That streak of luck inspired me to play better poker and I won the tourney. But had I not gone all-in with the q-10 in the first place, I am convinced I would have been out 8th. Perhaps not the best example, but I am still excited about my win last night! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] -Gross
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#19
11-17-2005, 05:40 PM
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Re: Am I too timid or is Ace Queen very foldable to a reraise?
First, I don't like AQ against any reraises. Second, you raised from an early position, which in itself shows strength. To compound all that, you have a guy who you said has only shown down good hands. I really think this is an easy easy fold unless you feel a miracle coming on.
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