Moving up to 10/20 or adding another 5/10 table?

[MrFeelNothin]

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5k hands with playing mostly tight/passive

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Im inclined to doubt you are a long term winner at those stakes. You could be, but I would suggest playing a lot more hands before satisfying the urge to move up.

Rushes can be fun. Except when they go the other way.

[chessmaster]

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Rushes can be fun. Except when they go the other way.

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The rush continues...
+118 BB after 950 hands which seems way too much.
But i think ill continue to play at 10/20 a bit (hopefully the rush holds on...) and when i drop 30-40 BB ill go back to the 1/2 tables and start learning multitabling SH from the beginning (there losing 200-300BB doesnt mean much if i multitable better afterwards).

[sthief09]

you are waaaaaay too results-oriented. stop looking at your winrate. it's meaningless

[srw5n]

Around 20K, I'm not at my home computer right now to check poker tracker. I think you or someone else asked me about 4BB/100 which has been my overall win rate at 5/10 and I made that post from my home computer.

4 Tabling I only have 500 hands, but my BB/100 was -.5 or so..again not at my home computer...regardless it was a MASSIVE drop, because I get lost...

[srw5n]

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you are waaaaaay too results-oriented. stop looking at your winrate. it's meaningless

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Funny. I don't want to make a smart a$$ post, but this was too funny to ignore. I personally am very result oriented in poker. Not hand by hand, but if I was down 100-200BB after 5K hands I think about blaming something other than variance...similarly if I was up a similar figured I may figure that I'm doing ok.

Just my opinion.

Chessmaster, keep up the good work. If you want to play 10/20 do it. I personally stay at 5/10 because I know I can win there and am not as confident at the 10/20 level.

[Sandstone]

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you are waaaaaay too results-oriented. stop looking at your winrate. it's meaningless

[/ QUOTE ] Don't bother. He obviously has his hands firmly placed over his ears.

[ggbman]

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Rushes can be fun. Except when they go the other way.

[/ QUOTE ]

The rush continues...
+118 BB after 950 hands which seems way too much.
But i think ill continue to play at 10/20 a bit (hopefully the rush holds on...) and when i drop 30-40 BB ill go back to the 1/2 tables and start learning multitabling SH from the beginning (there losing 200-300BB doesnt mean much if i multitable better afterwards).

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant tell you not to do something that you have your mind set on, but for anyone who understands variance this post shows that you don't. You have logged in 950 hands. I play that many hands in 3 hours. Winning or losing 2 grand in 3 hours doesnt mean anything. Putting a stop loss isn't a good idea because you don't get a good indicator of how well you adjust to the games if you keep having to move down. I'm not saying you can't beat the game, but it's clear that you don't understand just how small a smaple 1,000 hands is. I guarentee you by 20,000 your winrate won't be 1/3 of what it is now. Guarenteed.

[chessmaster]

I know that a sample size of 1k hands is meaningless, its just a nice rush so far. I agree with the other posters that it could be better to get some more experience at 5/10 first, but i just want to see my first losing session at 10/20 before going down again. It probably will come soon but as long as it doesnt ill continue to play 10/20 a bit. And i always have been results oriented to see what limit could be good for me, how will you determine otherwise?

[naphand]

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I don't want to make a smart a$$ post, but this was too funny to ignore.

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You do not appear to understand even the basics of variance, sample size and win rate. What I cannot believe is that people post on this forum do not read it. How can you make a comment like this given the huge number of posts that deal with precisely this subject? See no, hear no, speak so?

The advice on this forum to do with bankroll, swings and a host of other finance-related posts is among the best you will read anywhere, ignoring it is just stupid, plain and simple. Telling others to ignore it is irresponsible and massively ignorant. But then again, never underestimate the power of denial. I am sure there are a lot of forum users who have very good win rates over less than 20K hands and choose to ignore the collected wisdom here, instead preferring to believe they have found a secret method to win big and have low variance. Now THAT is funny. These people are deluded. The luck factor is far more significant that most would accept. What is your edge? 5%? That means 95% is due to how the cards fall and that can add up to a long long spell of winning or losing, with no way of determining which is true.

It is fine to encourage people to play a game they enjoy, but far better to temper this with sound advice. This thread is littered with the kind of weak math seen all too frequently on the forum. Sample size matters. 900 hands is nothing as far as statistical reliability is concerned. 9,000 hands much too small to have a significant meaning. Anyone who believes otherwise is deluding themselves, but what can you do when people have a win rate of 4BB/100 over 5K hands and believe they have "made it"?

There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.

[helpmeout]

How would losing $2k in 3 days feel to you?

I was in a similar situation to you.

After 10k hands at 5/10 I was running at around 4bb/100 and my results at lower limits were better so I figured I was ready.

10/20 however is a different game, people start playing you not just the cards and even if they do checkraise bluff a few times they wont be doing it once you start calling down. You'll start calling them down and they will show you winner after winner.

I started out well at 10/20 winning $2k in my first few thousand hands 3 days later +$300.

I wasnt ready for those kinds of swings and they do happen.

Now I plan to see something for my money and move up maybe when I hit $25k or so with a 600BB bankroll cos 300 isnt enough.