#11
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Re: Turn Decision
Ackid,
Good post. A few things to consider: 1. Though the pot is small now, if we three-bet and then get capped, at that point the pot is huge. Folding then becomes a huge problem. 2. The OP mentioned that villain did play some weird T high hands. The main point, to me, is that I don't see much advantage to three-betting, but I see a lot of disadvantage to folding to a cap. If we call the check-raise, villain will usually bet the river even if he was semi-bluffing and missed. We don't have so strong a hand, in my opinion, to make sure that 4 bets go in on the turn and river. 3 BB gets us to showdown and we need to never forget that getting to showdown is a very valuable thing. |
#12
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Re: Turn Decision
Is there a reason why folding here is so bad? Like I mentioned in my earlier post he has to be bluffing here at least 25% of the time before we start showing a profit for calling down.
Is a 35/11/1 player really bluffing or playing a weaker hand then us here more then 25% of the time? I have been calling down these and Villain almost always (much better then 75%) is showing down a hand that beats me. Can someone explain a) why folding is so bad when we have an overpair to someone in a small-medium sized pot on an un-coordinated board who is check raising us on the turn with an AF of 1ish and b) whether my 25% for calling to be successful is correct. |
#13
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Re: Turn Decision
At this point I want to see a showdown, therefore I think calling down is the correct play. I want to see a showdown which this hand and by just calling here and check-calling the river unimproved we get to see it in the cheapest manner. If we 3-bet here and it gets capped and even if it does not get capped, the pot becomes larger and folding becomes more difficult on the river following our 3-bet.
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#14
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Re: Turn Decision
[ QUOTE ]
The OP mentioned that villain did play some weird T high hands. [/ QUOTE ] I meant JT+ and T8s+, not two pair hands. Even if we rule out all two pair hands (which I don't think is too much of a stretch) so that I'm ahead of everything but 22, 44 and 66, I'm still not sure whether calling is correct. Yes, there are a lot of top pair hands he would play pre-flop, but I don't think he's aggressive enough to pull this play with them. If the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] had been a different suit, that might sway my decision, but I simply don't see him check-raising the turn with A4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or a naked ten. Scott |
#15
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Re: Turn Decision
Why can't villain have a hand like A4/A2/K4 of diamonds?
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