KTs at 10/20 stars

[Trix]

Well they are in the pokerhand link, but for those who didn´t look:
CO shoved his last 3 bets in with 97(I didn´t bother looking before now either)
UTG had K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which is probably one of the worst one pair hands I can be against except better top-pair with a flushdraw.
BB said that he folded KJ to the cap and I think it was true.

Now to put a little more thought into this rather than just copying what was in the pokerhand link, I´ll try to figure out how bad these implied odds actually were in this case.

I´ll ignore the all in guy for this.

From the flop to showdown I could probably expect around 9:4BB odds, which is around 31%.

Qs Kh 800 80.81 156 15.76 34 3.43 0.825
Kd Td 156 15.76 800 80.81 34 3.43 0.175

If you add 9h7d, it drops to 16%.

Since my equity is around half of that, that would mean that my reverse implied odds are around one BB ?

Preflop I ended up getting 5.6:1.. (4.25:0.75), which means that I need around 18% equity, ignoring postflop play.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kh 334993 30.85 721635 66.45 29380 2.71 0.317
Kd Td 238553 21.97 818075 75.33 29380 2.71 0.228
7d 9h 277317 25.54 803805 74.01 4886 0.45 0.256
Js Kc 205765 18.95 850863 78.35 29380 2.71 0.198
(I´m aware that I´ve forgotten one coldcaller hand)

Noticed that I had a number wrong at first, so it seems alot closer than I thought.

With 22.8% equity, on a hand that needs 18%
So I dont really gain that much preflop..

I´m guessing that there are alot of better ways the hand can play out vs the ranges I´m against, but not really sure if my implied/reverse implied odds are negative or positive here. If they are neutral, it´s a close call I guess.

I´m guessing that my big implied odds on 2-pair or better, or big draws, due to my relative position will make up for alot of the money I lose when I´m dominated on the flop.

[mex78753]

Although I sometimes play these hands exactly like this. I feel like the flop cap is spewing. In pots like these I always feel that I'm beat on the flop but usually tend to continue regardless.

I consider this somewhat spewing with a weak king.

[DMBFan23]

I usually fold preflop, someone tell me why I'm wrong pls without using the phrase "5:1" in isolation.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually fold preflop, someone tell me why I'm wrong pls without using the phrase "5:1" in isolation.

[/ QUOTE ]

7.5:1.5 odds!

Okay, okay... if you want to get a feel for this sort of stuff, you should plug some ranges into pokerstove and decide for yourself. KTs will do pretty well here, I imagine.

[DMBFan23]

yeah I suppose I could dig it with some reads, just that my default is to fold. JTs would almost be better I think, is that way off?

[Trix]

I think they are close, but KTs is prolly better.

[pheasant tail (no 18)]

Hi Trix,

I think this is an interesting hand. Perhaps it is partially because you seem to be in a mess being so out of position w/ a likely dominated king. I know the texture of the game is very important to your decisions and I have no idea what the stars games or these players are like, but against average 10/20 players like on PP, I think the call is marginal at best. I wouldn't CC this on the button. Would you? A lot of times that is what I ask when I'm looking for a fold. Since a lot of the strength of your hand comes from it being suited, I would like the call a lot more if CO was not about to go all in. Perhaps my reasoning is wrong and or your reads overcame these factors. I presume that if you had any strong reads you'd have included them in your OP.

The flop is interesting too. What would you have done if you tried to C/R and it came back to you 2 bets? Having a poor kicker in an aggressive pot w/ a million draws looks to be a tough spot for me. I would like to hear you comment on how you think the CO being all in effects your decisions (if it did). What were you putting UTG on when you capped and what was your purpose for the cap?

By the time the turn drops, to me you look to be behind 50% at least. UTG was EP PFR, so I think a better K is more likely than spades. But spades/gutshot are certainly possible as well as a PP and A9. It looks more likely to me that you are the one drawing and the side pot is so small that offering a free card does not look to be too dangerous. W/ the extra outs that you picked up, I like having UTG in lead as it makes a river c/r more likely when you catch. Do you have any thoughts on this?

My initial thoughts...

PT

[Silverback]

fold preflop

[oreogod]

I just realized CO went All in. At first I was like wtf are u doing Trix. Still, whats your read on UTG?

[7ontheline]

I like it. I can't imagine folding suited broadways preflop here with all the callers and with the PFR to your right. I like the flop too, since CO is all-in. Even if he has you beat, you could easily be ahead of UTG and you can probably get away if he raises you on the turn in this protected pot.