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#12
03-29-2005, 02:35 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
search around in probability for variance and [censored] like that. ultimately you'll find out you could play a few hundred thousand hands of winning poker and not REALLY be a winning player, possibly... it's just that you've been running good.
the point is... there's no cut off between a normal downswing and an abormal downswing that anyone can give you. if you feel like you're stressin' it.... yadda yadda yadda, you know the rest, right? 
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#13
03-29-2005, 02:41 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
ultimately you'll find out you could play a few hundred thousand hands of winning poker and not REALLY be a winning player, possibly... it's just that you've been running good. [/ QUOTE ] Ugh. So how can anyone say that they are a winning player?
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#14
03-29-2005, 02:56 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
because it's very likely that you are if you've maintained a winning rate over a few hundred thousand hands.
you just couldn't say for mathematical certainty, based solely on those statistics. you couldn't PROVE it, is all i'm saying. all this really means is that you can't accurately quote your win rate, and that you shouldn't worry about downswings, because a hundred thousand hands from now, that 200 bb will just be a blip. if you're having trouble clawing your way out, step away. it's hard to stay objective when you're losing. particularly during your first NOTICEABLE major downswing. even if you're playing reasonably solid, you're doubting yourself, and you'll start making poor decisions at times, particularly when those decisions are close. you'll turn it around. promise.
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#15
03-29-2005, 03:15 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
you'll turn it around. promise. [/ QUOTE ] I don't mean to sound arrogant, but I know that I will. the numbers behind the drops inrigues me, that's all. I appreciate the support. As I type this, my top 2 just got cracked by a gutshot in a small pot. God I love poker.
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#16
03-29-2005, 03:25 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
I think its a little strange that all of a sudden everyone is going through a downswing right now. I myself have been running pretty bad for the last 12000 hands. I think we're being cheated, maybe somebody cracked the code again. Anybody been running good this month?
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#17
03-29-2005, 03:27 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
I think its a little strange that all of a sudden everyone is going through a downswing right now. I myself have been running pretty bad for the last 12000 hands. I think we're being cheated, maybe somebody cracked the code again. Anybody been running good this month? [/ QUOTE ] I was running at 2.8bb/100 through 20K hands at 3/6 until yesterday.
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#19
03-29-2005, 03:44 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
I had a -150 swing at 3/6 in an hour and a half once
it's bad but expected
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#20
03-29-2005, 03:50 AM
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Re: Downswings (no hand content)
[ QUOTE ]
I had a -150 swing at 3/6 in an hour and a half once it's bad but expected [/ QUOTE ] I agree that -150 swing at 3/6 in an hour and a half is quite bad, but EXPECTED???? I've gotta believe that such a swing is an anomaly. Or you just reallyreallyreally suck.
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