A visual on the effect of the luck factor on bankroll

[Irieguy]

Good points. I should have put the phrase "for a given ROI" after each time I used ITM%.

I find it more helpful to discuss things assuming that your ROI is constant because it takes so very many trials to really know what your ROI is, whereas you can be reasonably confident in your ITM% after around 500 SNGs.

But you're exactly right: on sites with longer SNGs (more chips, slower blind increases), you can acheive a higher ITM and ROI% than on PP... which will decrease your variance. I guess it's a chicken/egg argument- is it the site or the change in ITM/ROI that affects variance? I was just arguing the later- but both are true depending on how you look at it.

Irieguy