Anything wrong here?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet fold this turn. There is a good chance you are ahead here, people are going to peel that flop with total crap.

I am undecided on your river play. it is unclear to me if we're ahead 10% of the time after he 3bets.

[/ QUOTE ]
we aren't, but i think it's worth paying off to see what he played like this.

[zephed]

[ QUOTE ]
Is betting the turn +EV though?

Whats your reasoning?

How many outs are all of the "turn betters" giving us?
Are we ahead of drawing?
is our opponent folding?
What is our equity?


i think we miss the river and are behind to often to bet the turn.

Also IF WE BET AND HE RAISES we're getting 7:1 and with 6 outs we can call.

I dont like the turn bet, Please argue your point though - id like a conclusion here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
If you often check the turn and fold the river, even the dumb bad players will pick up on this and start peeling and then betting when you check.

That turn doesn't really help a lot of his flop peeling hands. So if we were ahead on the flop we are good on the turn. If he was ahead to begin with, oh well that's the breaks. We will more than make up for it when we're betting top pair ALL THE WAY and get called down. Don't forget that we have outs and can improve to the winner, so we don't need him to fold. Neither does getting called on the turn mean we are behind. I get called all the time on the turn with absolute crap.

[cfjr2]

I think you should have bet the turn. If you had and he called you can be fairly certain he has a str8 draw or a pair. If villan then bets the river you call and save 1 bet, if villan check raises the river you can call and you are even with the line taken (or fold but I don't like that much as he may bluff into your agressiveness)

so even if my assumption that villan bets the river after your turn bet only happens 10% of the time you still save .1 bet when you lose this - so overall slightly +EV over line taken.

There is the down side if you don't improve on the river but I think it evens out with when you win on the turn if villan folds bottom pair and when you improve to the nut str8.

Once you have a read on a specific villan this would change of course

[zephed]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain had only played a couple of hands and I had no reads or stats on him.

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.00 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks. (I don't like betting here against unknown villains)

River: (4.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.00 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Grunching...

I prefer betting the turn and taking a free showdown UI because of the straight draw on board. I don't want to have to call the river UI. Also, if I improve, I can put in another bet on the river.

When you bet the turn, you will get calls out of draws, overcards etc. You'll also get called when behind, but that is moot since we want to see a showdown regardless (calling a bet on the end after checking turn).

In the long run, getting AK to showdown will be more profitable when it's done without the villain showing any aggression (betting the turn and letting him call instead of snapping off an infrequent bluff). If you check turn and call river, you are less likely ahead because a bet is more likely to mean you are behind. Some of the times he will check and fold, and you gain nothing. I think this level is fishy enough to make turn bets profitable. However, if your villain doesn't call light, then I would lean towards a check, and fold river UI.

I like the river raise, but I think you have to fold when it's 3-bet. The pot's not big enough I don't think.