I need to be making more folds like this one?

[aflaba]

REPOST. I don't know if stuff are correct now, but I hope so.


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If your read is correct then the place to fold is the turn. About 25% of the time you have 2 outs to a win and none to a split.

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If we count splits as half outs then I think these are my number of outs...

I have 0 outs against AA(1), 77(1), A7(4) = 6 combinations.

I have 2 outs against 88(3) = 3 combinations.

I have 4 (9*3 + 7*2/2 + A*1/2) outs against A8(6) = 6 combinations

I have 4 (9,7,A) outs against AK(8)= 8 combinations.

I have 6 (9,7,A,K) outs against AQ(8)= 8 combinations.

I think a regular won't 3-bet AJ, AT, A9 often on the flop?

In the cases where I have half outs I have counted them as zero outs.

If he will always play these ahnds like he played and we rebate none of them (resonable?) then I have (0*6 + 2*3 + 4*6 + 4*8 + 6*8)/(6+3+6+8+8) = 3.5 outs in mean.





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...that are tainted a bit by UTG's calling along (let's say by .5)

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I don't think he is tainting anything though. I would more count him towards implied odds? Is it possible to do that if he is bad?

I didn't give a good description of him in the OP because I didn't think anything else than the river would be discussed. But I'm glad the turn came up as well.

I generally think it is bad sport to bring up more detailed reads in replys... But anyway, since I didn't think it was important when posting: He was really bad and could be holding any two cards. Really. He had called my down with T-high and similar _several_ times.

He was probable to call both the turn and the river. So I don't think we can count him as negative. Let's call him EV = 0.





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Both the positive and negative implied odds scenarios are rare enough that they effectively cancel each other out.

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I think this is very interesting. Because I feel I have to learn about implied odds. I agree that it may be + or -. Either way it is only a fraction of a bet.





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You need 12.6 to 1 to call profitably and even if UTG always calls behind you you're only getting 9.75 to 1.

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I came to different but similar figures.
3.5 outs : 42.5 cards left = 1 : 12.1, which is _worse_ than the 1 : 9.75 I am getting from the pot. According to my figures I am _not_ good to call.

Really interestinging stuff.

I think I often underestimate the probability of worst case scenarios. Probably because I still enjoy calling. This was definatly a good reminder. Thanks for giving it!




EDIT: This is killing me.

[aflaba]

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1.) If he has an Ace in his hand that means there is only one left in the deck.

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That was a biggie. I missed that.



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2.) Your outs to a split only count for half because you only win half the pot with them.

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That I counted. But most of my half outs were the 2 aces so...



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In my analysis I rightly or wrongly assumed that he would 3-bet AJ and AT every time.

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OK. Yeah, I did when playing as well. But not in hindsight. Maybe "TAGs" would 3-bet AJ-AT there. I'm a TAG myself but I still don't know :-).

If he does then that improves my odds a bit ;-)



[ QUOTE ]
Two very probable hands for him are 65 and JT. Both nullify your 9 as an out. Even if he could have a bunch of other hands too he still hurts your chances. Note I discounted your 9's by .5 due to his presence which assumes he would only have one of these hands 1/6 of the time.

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Yeah. That is very resonable. I guess I didn't catch that part correcly. You counted him as donating to the pot, so even if his hands are random he will hinder my nines sometimes. Very good!




After I did call the turn and didn't improve. Do you think I should have folded the river?

[Danenania]

Small points:

-You have 2 outs against 77.

-Someone with those numbers is very unlikely to raise A7 PF unless it's suited, and there is only 1 combo of A7s. Same deal with A8s except there are 2 combos of that.

-I actually forgot to include 7's in your split outs against AK/AQ so you one upped me there [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

[Danenania]

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After I did call the turn and didn't improve. Do you think I should have folded the river?

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Probably. How many hands is your read over? There is no logical hand he plays this way that you beat. The question is if he has done something irrational often enough to make calling profitable. My guess is no.

[aflaba]

[ QUOTE ]
-You have 2 outs against 77.

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77 has quads so I have 0 outs against it.

[Danenania]

Lol. I suppose I'll give you that one.