Variance at Micro Limits

[Vex]

Last week I started my first ever attempt at logging 10,000 consecutive hands at the same stakes with the goal of showing a profit over the course of it. I've never gotten past 5,000 hands before, before getting sick of it and changing over to Omaha or playing some tournaments to break up the monotony.

This time I'm doing much better; in five days of $0.50/$1.00 Limit (full ring) I've logged 6740 hands and am tracking at +1.72 bb/100 hands. I am playing 6-8 tables at once -- I'm not going for finesse but rather being quick and consistent and automatic.

I'm doing this on Poker Stars, and I'd describe the games as almost always loose and passive. People are practically giving their money away; I can remember a dozen or more specific instances where people ran me down with draws and then didn't raise the river when they caught. I am playing with a pretty loose preflop selection of hands, and betting aggressively, either for value or to get free cards down the line. There are also a lot of big multiway pots and in those I often switch to passive play when I want to chase. So far I've done a pretty good job of getting the best of both worlds like that.

I started with a roll of $200, figuring that would be more than enough cushion against variance.

I'm posting because I want to compare experiences and ask advice. So far, I've spent 3412 hands, or about half my total play, in a long downswing. In three consecutive sessions of roughly 1100 hands each, I dropped 45 bets, then 20, then 5. Obviously my non-downswing sessions have been more than comparably good. It's also important to note that my bankroll has only dipped down about 30 bets, early on in my first session, and I've been up since then, even at the trough of my downswing (I had an incredibly lucky +78 bet, 598-hand session early, giving me a nice cushion).

So, I ask:

1> Is my variance way too high; is it similar to what others experience; or am I getting lucky and riding a smooth stretch of road?

2> After completing these 10K hands, I'm probably going to play another 10K before deciding to move up to $1/$2. Assuming I pull of 20K hands at >1 bb/100, then I move up, should I expect more or less variance?

3> With my poker tracker data, how can I estimate what my chances are of actually being >1 bb/100 at 10K hands? At 20K?