NFL Team Rankings

[NoChance]

No ranking will ever be perfect. It will tighten up as the season progresses because the stats will "web" together tighter. It does take into consideration how a team played against each opponent based on scoring but not whether it won or lost against them. For example, right now SD is higher than Pitt and Pitt beat them on the road. Same goes for Pitt and New England. New England beat them on the road. It takes into account every game rather than each individual game.

Bah, it's jsut interesting. And as I said, it will tighten up as more games are played and the tangled "web" becomes tighter. For now, it is what it is.

[NoChance]

After Week 7:

2.227 Indianapolis
1.639 Tampa Bay
1.621 Jacksonville
1.566 Pittsburgh
1.413 Seattle
1.407 Washington
1.366 Denver
1.338 Chicago
1.286 Cincinnati
1.210 Dallas
1.188 San Diego
1.131 Philadelphia
1.038 NY Giants
0.927 Atlanta
0.914 Kansas City
0.677 Detroit
0.461 Cleveland
0.424 New England
0.412 Oakland
0.386 Carolina
0.159 Green Bay
0.126 Miami
-0.133 Baltimore
-0.251 Arizona
-0.358 Buffalo
-0.388 NY Jets
-0.460 St. Louis
-0.478 Tennesee
-0.668 Minnesota
-0.998 New Orleans
-1.518 Houston
-1.788 San Francisco

Also, teams who have played the toughest schedule so far (based only on oposing teams average wins):
4.67 Jacksonville
4.33 Houston
4.00 San Francisco
3.83 New England
3.83 Miami

Those with the easy schedules so far:
2.00 Indianapolis (how does this happen?)
2.17 Tampa Bay
2.17 Carolina
2.43 Cincinnati
2.57 Buffalo

[lastchance]

Indy's schedule the rest of the season is killer though. Jax twice, NE, SD, Philly, Seattle, Cincy, Pittsburgh. That's 8 hard games out of nine the rest of the way. Ok, so Seattle isn't as good as NE, which isn't as good as the other teams, but the Colts are going to have to prove their mettle down the stretch.

[kschellenger]

These numbers seem to get more ridiculous each week.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
These numbers seem to get more ridiculous each week.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure you could say that, but look at what happened from last weeks list.

[ QUOTE ]
After Week 6:

Indianapolis Won
Jacksonville Bye
1.692 Tampa Bay Bye
1.586 Cincinnati Lost vs Pitt
1.434 Denver Lost @ NYG
1.269 San Diego Lost @ Philly
1.233 Pittsburgh Won vs. Cin
1.189 Dallas Lost @ Sea
1.171 Washington Won
1.164 Chicago Won
0.993 Seattle Won vs Dal
0.940 NY Giants Won vs Den
0.853 Atlanta Won
0.822 Philadelphia Won vs. SD
0.728 Cleveland Lost vs. Det
0.668 Detroit Won @ Cle


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you need to stop watching so much NFL Primetime.

[BottlesOf]

Interesting concept. I think your top 5 look pretty good, although I don't think JAX belongs, and I think Cincy should maybe be in there. NE should def. be higher, but I understand why they wouldn't be according to your formula.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
NE should def. be higher

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what the Pats have done to deserve this though. At this point New England is considered good simply because they have done it before. I'm not saying they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt, but they have done nothing this year to look like an elite team.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
After Week 7:

2.227 Indianapolis
1.639 Tampa Bay (uh... no)
1.621 Jacksonville
1.566 Pittsburgh
1.413 Seattle (Seattle isn't a top 5 team, top 10, sure, but not top 5)
1.407 Washington (I think Washington is for real, but they're not this good)
1.366 Denver
1.338 Chicago (yeah, overrated)
1.286 Cincinnati (a loss to pittsburgh means nothing)
1.210 Dallas
1.188 San Diego (they've had to face a killer schedule, you know LT + Gates is godlike)
1.131 Philadelphia
1.038 NY Giants
0.927 Atlanta
0.914 Kansas City (I'd bump this team up a few spots)
0.677 Detroit
0.461 Cleveland
0.424 New England (this is a weird team right now, we know they're good, but they haven't played like it)
0.412 Oakland
0.386 Carolina
0.159 Green Bay
0.126 Miami
-0.133 Baltimore
-0.251 Arizona
-0.358 Buffalo
-0.388 NY Jets
-0.460 St. Louis
-0.478 Tennesee
-0.668 Minnesota
-0.998 New Orleans
-1.518 Houston
-1.788 San Francisco

Also, teams who have played the toughest schedule so far (based only on oposing teams average wins):
4.67 Jacksonville
4.33 Houston
4.00 San Francisco
3.83 New England
3.83 Miami

Those with the easy schedules so far:
2.00 Indianapolis (how does this happen?)
2.17 Tampa Bay
2.17 Carolina
2.43 Cincinnati
2.57 Buffalo

[/ QUOTE ]
All-in-all, I don't think this is too far off, but I doubt it's as good as FO or Sagarin.

[mblax10]

Have you considered trying to factor home/road games into your system?

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]
2.227 Indianapolis
1.639 Tampa Bay (uh... no)
1.621 Jacksonville
1.566 Pittsburgh
1.413 Seattle (Seattle isn't a top 5 team, top 10, sure, but not top 5)
1.407 Washington (I think Washington is for real, but they're not this good)
1.366 Denver
1.338 Chicago (yeah, overrated)
1.286 Cincinnati (a loss to pittsburgh means nothing)
1.210 Dallas
1.188 San Diego (they've had to face a killer schedule, you know LT + Gates is godlike)
1.131 Philadelphia
1.038 NY Giants
0.927 Atlanta
0.914 Kansas City (I'd bump this team up a few spots)
0.677 Detroit
0.461 Cleveland
0.424 New England (this is a weird team right now, we know they're good, but they haven't played like it)
0.412 Oakland
0.386 Carolina
0.159 Green Bay
0.126 Miami
-0.133 Baltimore
-0.251 Arizona
-0.358 Buffalo
-0.388 NY Jets
-0.460 St. Louis
-0.478 Tennesee
-0.668 Minnesota
-0.998 New Orleans
-1.518 Houston
-1.788 San Francisco

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of your comments make sense but some don't. For example, I aggree that at the END of the year, Tampa Bay will not be ranked that high. But, if you consider what they have done to date, the ranking makes sense. I expect them to fall a little in the coming weeks as they play tougher opponents and adjust to a different starting qurterback. You could say similar things about Seattle and Chicago. They have had easier schedules also. I think Washington and Jacksonville are for real. They have played tougher schedules and have come out the best of it so far.

The thing I find interesting is the rating that it gives for Indianapolis. They are at 2.227 and have been caosting through their schedule so far. They will have a more difficult second half af the season. Now for the surprising part: New England's rating for the ENTIRE year last year is higher than Indy's rating is so far this year. That just shows you how good New England was last year. I've said it before, I truly think last year was by far their most impressive year during their run and they did it with key injuries also.

Again, just keep in mind that the ratings will tighten as more games are played. I don't know how to figure home/away into the formula but in the end it should even out anyway. I do think there may some extra weight in there when teams get blown out but as they play more games, each game means less when averaged in with the rest of them. Give it some time and see what happens. Looking at last year's final ratings, it looks pretty good.

The reason I made this spreadsheet a while back was to try and look for a measure of how a team played versus it's competition rather than just looking at win/loss records. I was trying to find something that would help me find advantages when making wagers. It has served it's purpose and I was only posting these to generate discussion. Teams can be ranked in many different ways. I just offer you one way. Take it for what it's worth. It works for me.