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#1
12-22-2005, 02:52 PM
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Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't like raising to 50K and folding to a reraise at all. Once you raise to 50K, you have pot odds to call. Either push or limp. . K7o is only a 59-41 dog to A2o and you have pot odds. You were the chip leader but had less than 20xBB. It is easy to bust out fast if you don't play weak tight. [/ QUOTE ] Well, he's not flipping over A2o and showing you, is he? Against a more reasonable range of any Ace, any pair, K7o is a 65:35 dog. If he raised to 50k, and the guy reraised him all in, he has to call 145k to win 245k. Those are odds of 63:37. So he does not have the pot odds to call. Even if he did marginally have the pot odds to call, he is giving up so much the 65% of the time that he loses. The ability to push around. The ability to steal without committing your whole stack. The ability not to be a pushbot. You guys are acting like this was all inevitable, since he was folded to in the SB with K7 (which is only a 55% favorite against a random hand). I think that is completely wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Blind versus blind, I don't know if villain's range for reraising allin is all that high. K7o is about the same versus A3-A6 as A2, and better versus 22-66. If you are really planning on folding to a reraise, I would miniraise, which gives you better odds to fold. I think the push is best here. It is definately chip EV+. I think Sklansky did calculations, showing that you could push with an awful lot of hands even if your opponent knew what you had. True you can wind up going from chip leader to bust out playing aggressively, but you can also win the tournament that way. 
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#2
12-22-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
[ QUOTE ]
[If you are really planning on folding to a reraise, I would miniraise, which gives you better odds to fold. I think the push is best here. It is definately chip EV+. [/ QUOTE ] I think the minraise gives the villian the odds to call with any two, so I prefer the 2.5 BB raise. A push is definitely an option, depending what has been happening at the table. But I also think a raise, fold to reraise is a viable option, unless you've been doing a lot of that. Table dynamics at this point mean so much--If I have been stealing at will, I might even let this go (so I don't have to play out of position if he calls the bet). But if you minraise or raise 2.5BBs, you need to fold to the reraise all-in.
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#3
12-22-2005, 02:55 PM
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Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
Did you ever consider just folding and letting the blind go? I know, I know, CL pushing the little guy around, thats how I would perceive it and so with A2, i just might fire back as well, especially if this is something you were doing ith on a fairly consistent basis. Lets face it, you can make that play with any 2 cards, I did it with 8 2 the other day, easy steal from MP, also didnt hurt that I had around 900k. If you did this with any type of consistency, then you can throw FE out the door, at some point someone will say F*** It I'm taking a stand. And the A9o, were you so desperate at that point to push? Sure you are a slight favorite against a random hand. You still had a decent M, not great, but not desperate either, why push?
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#4
12-22-2005, 03:09 PM
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Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
[ QUOTE ]
Did you ever consider just folding and letting the blind go? I know, I know, CL pushing the little guy around, thats how I would perceive it and so with A2, i just might fire back as well, especially if this is something you were doing ith on a fairly consistent basis. Lets face it, you can make that play with any 2 cards, I did it with 8 2 the other day, easy steal from MP, also didnt hurt that I had around 900k. If you did this with any type of consistency, then you can throw FE out the door, at some point someone will say F*** It I'm taking a stand. And the A9o, were you so desperate at that point to push? Sure you are a slight favorite against a random hand. You still had a decent M, not great, but not desperate either, why push? [/ QUOTE ] Folding K7o in the SB is really bad, particularly if you are the chip leader. I've folded better hands than that in the SB many times, but I had a specific reason. You don't have to bully people with the chip lead, but no need to play ultraconservative. Pushing is cEV+, and I don't think you should be afraid to gamble. You won't win the tornament by playing cautiously. I think you have to limp, raise, or push. Folding is way too weak tight. You have to push with A9o from the button. That is a really big hand 3-handed.
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#5
12-22-2005, 01:17 PM
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Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
Look out for the big stacks. I don't like the 100k raise. I don't like the raise with king no kicker. let some of the smaller stacks bust out. If you are going to raise, go 3xBB if you can't get away from it.
His range is any pair, any ace, any two paints; less likely are higher suited connectors; his perception of your range is proly any two cards due to you being chip leader / bully.
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#6
12-22-2005, 01:20 PM
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Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
I dunno about the average player, but when I see a 5x bb raise on the button/sb, I immediately think weakness. That doesn't mean I'm gonna push with a2, but it's something to keep in mind.
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#7
12-22-2005, 04:15 PM
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The Math behind a push...
Case 1: Villian calls a push about 10% of the time {AA-77, ATs+, AJo+, KQs} Hero is 28/71 vs villian's range.
cEV(fold) = 410,000 cEV(push) = .9(steals blinds) + .1(villian calls and hand plays out) = .9(440,000) + .1[ (.28*615,000 )+ (.71*225,000) ] = 429,195 Case 2: Villian calls a push about 25% of the time {AA-22, any ace, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs} Hero is 35/65 vs range cEV(fold) = 410,000 cEV(push) = .75(steals blinds) + .25(villian calls and hand plays out) = .75(440,000) + .25[ (.35*615,000 )+ (.65*225,000) ] = 420,375 So... Definitely +cEV, but only marginally (+1BB when your stack is 20BB) and it gets worse as your opponent's range loosens. IMO, risking too much for too little given your stack and ability to use it. I think this is a perfect example of passing up a marginally +EV bet now if losing it will cost you the opportunity of making an even greater +EV wager down the road. That being said, many times I limp here and bet any flop. [i]Edit: in case it's not evident from my post, I think raising the calling a push is bad, bad, bad. I'm either pushing (which I wouldn't have done at the time, and I think the math justifies that decision), limping, or folding. The limp/fold decision is based upon how active villian has been preflop.
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#8
12-22-2005, 04:55 PM
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Re: The Math behind a push...
[ QUOTE ]
Case 1: Villian calls a push about 10% of the time {AA-77, ATs+, AJo+, KQs} Hero is 28/71 vs villian's range. cEV(fold) = 410,000 cEV(push) = .9(steals blinds) + .1(villian calls and hand plays out) = .9(440,000) + .1[ (.28*615,000 )+ (.71*225,000) ] = 429,195 Case 2: Villian calls a push about 25% of the time {AA-22, any ace, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs} Hero is 35/65 vs range cEV(fold) = 410,000 cEV(push) = .75(steals blinds) + .25(villian calls and hand plays out) = .75(440,000) + .25[ (.35*615,000 )+ (.65*225,000) ] = 420,375 So... Definitely +cEV, but only marginally (+1BB when your stack is 20BB) and it gets worse as your opponent's range loosens. IMO, risking too much for too little given your stack and ability to use it. I think this is a perfect example of passing up a marginally +EV bet now if losing it will cost you the opportunity of making an even greater +EV wager down the road. That being said, many times I limp here and bet any flop. [i]Edit: in case it's not evident from my post, I think raising the calling a push is bad, bad, bad. I'm either pushing (which I wouldn't have done at the time, and I think the math justifies that decision), limping, or folding. The limp/fold decision is based upon how active villian has been preflop. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was trying to get at Betgo. I didnt explain or prove it as well, but this is it. And one more time, the A9o push was with the button and blinds still to act, 4 handed.
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#9
12-22-2005, 05:58 PM
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Re: The Math behind a push...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Case 1: Villian calls a push about 10% of the time {AA-77, ATs+, AJo+, KQs} Hero is 28/71 vs villian's range. cEV(fold) = 410,000 cEV(push) = .9(steals blinds) + .1(villian calls and hand plays out) = .9(440,000) + .1[ (.28*615,000 )+ (.71*225,000) ] = 429,195 Case 2: Villian calls a push about 25% of the time {AA-22, any ace, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs} Hero is 35/65 vs range cEV(fold) = 410,000 cEV(push) = .75(steals blinds) + .25(villian calls and hand plays out) = .75(440,000) + .25[ (.35*615,000 )+ (.65*225,000) ] = 420,375 So... Definitely +cEV, but only marginally (+1BB when your stack is 20BB) and it gets worse as your opponent's range loosens. IMO, risking too much for too little given your stack and ability to use it. I think this is a perfect example of passing up a marginally +EV bet now if losing it will cost you the opportunity of making an even greater +EV wager down the road. That being said, many times I limp here and bet any flop. [i]Edit: in case it's not evident from my post, I think raising the calling a push is bad, bad, bad. I'm either pushing (which I wouldn't have done at the time, and I think the math justifies that decision), limping, or folding. The limp/fold decision is based upon how active villian has been preflop. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was trying to get at Betgo. I didnt explain or prove it as well, but this is it. And one more time, the A9o push was with the button and blinds still to act, 4 handed. [/ QUOTE ] FWIW, the A9o hand is an autopush. Do the math and you'll see.
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