I was told I wass playing junk. What do you think?

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
any Q is good... any spade is good. That's 12 outs. You are going to win 26% of the time here. If all 3 players see the turn capped... it's still +EV (although very slightly). Hmm... says 4 players, but only see 3. hmmmmm.... vs 3 opponents, capping slightly +EV. vs 2 opponents calling good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite pete, but close. He is actually getting slightly UNDER 26% equity here. The reason: occassionally when he hits his gutshot there will be a split pot (JT is a popular hand to play), and he will occassionally loose to a higher flush. 3 betting here is an error, but a minor one.

Edit: plus if a spade pairs the board this makes for obviously problems.

[davelin]

Yeah, I don't love the turn raise either. Your equity is not high enough against just 2 others, someone may fold and it may shut out the action on the river.

[flo]

Can you post your calculation for the -ev here? I think i do something wrong =)

Thanks!!

[JapaneseSandman]

Thanks for the info. Your right about the turn raise but I was fixated on keeping my aggression factor up.

Not Japanese, just a Zappa fan for some reason my signature will not post on its own.

Wang tang ting tong I am the Japanese sandman, take eight.

[DavidC]

Your hand selection is just fine.

Your flop play is just fine.

On the turn you're too aggressive. I'm prone to making the same error though.

You have a gsff here. 12 outs. However, all 12 of those outs may not be good. Due to the turn raise, it's possible that someone picked up two pair or trips.

Furthermore, there's still 46 cards left in the deck, and you don't have a hand yet!

12 outs gives you 26% equity. There are four players, one of them is all in, so you now represent 33% of the bettors. You're losing money by pushing this turn.

Even if there were 4 players and they were all calling, you have a 4% edge here (1/25) with 12 outs. With less than 12 outs, you would find that you would be slightly negative... and you could very well have less than 12 outs: due to two pair, another flush draw, etc.

You want to forget about pushing your small edge, in favour of waiting until the river when you can get them all for bets once you have a killer hand.

Looking at the results, I see that you weren't up against a flush draw, but who knows what MP1 had... you WERE against those two pair though. Not trips surprisingly. This is pretty intense action on the turn.

[Greg J]

I don't have my odds chart in front of me (or memorized like I should). What is boils down to is this:

1) If you make a flush but the board pairs there is a VERY good chance you loose to the boat.

2) If you make your flush on an unpaired board there is a small chance you loose to a higher flush.

3) If you hit your gutshot there is a small chance you split the pot (JT is a popular hand to play).

So, reraising the turn is a mistake, but it is not as big of a mistake as many of the people replying to this post think it is. It is a small error, and slightly -EV.

Make sense?

[DavidC]

hehehe...

I was going to say that he may even be just a little early or would have prefered another limper to even be in the hand.

I would probably be wrong, but it all depends on how the table is playing, right?

However, I don't think JTs is a raising hand unless you're in good position vs a 3+ bad limpers.

[DavidC]

If the pot were bigger, then 3-betting the turn may have been a good idea, to buy 5% more of the pot: folding the other gutshot.

However, the pot was small enough on the turn that such a play would have been unprofitable given its cost.

--Dave.

[DavidC]

I figure he'd lose 25% of every bet that he put in on the turn if there were 2 opponents putting in cash with him. Hardly a minor error.

My math is as follows:

33% of players is he (hehehe I'm tired so I'm talking like Yoda)

26% equity

33-26 = 7 / 26 =~ 25%

[DavidC]

I did in one of my replies.

Edit: Actually, combine the 12/46 = 26% reply with the "26% equity is -EV if you're 33% of players" reply.