KK 10/20

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it odd that villain would checkraise the flop with trips Qs. Don't think its third level thinking. Will villain pay off with a 9? Sure, donks play 10/20 too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see a player that raises 5% raising a hand containing a 9 UTG that often at all. Raising did cross my mind, but the whole way ahead/way behind thing. . . This hand felt weird to play, but in hindsight it should be standard?

-SmileyEH

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
70 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

[SmileyEH]

I don't know if that's relevant - PFR converges fairly quickly I would think...his PFR is certainly less than 10. I'm not saying he never has a 9 here, it just seems that it would be a very very small part of his hand range.

-SmileyEH

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it odd that villain would checkraise the flop with trips Qs. Don't think its third level thinking. Will villain pay off with a 9? Sure, donks play 10/20 too.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one thinks JJ/TT is paying off?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if that's relevant - PFR converges fairly quickly I would think...his PFR is certainly less than 10. I'm not saying he never has a 9 here, it just seems that it would be a very very small part of his hand range.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its more important to say that he (moslty) wouldn't check-raise a queen on this flop than it is to put him on a 9. Seems to me there are many more hands that c/r this flop...I said 9 first, but I think we should open his range to TT, JJ, etc.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I find it odd that villain would checkraise the flop with trips Qs. Don't think its third level thinking. Will villain pay off with a 9? Sure, donks play 10/20 too.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one thinks JJ/TT is paying off?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think so, but is it worth putting in the extra bets when I might end up folding a hand like AJ or end up paying an extra two to see AQ/KQ?

-SmileyEH

[brettbrettr]

Also, I'm no statistician but I think 70 is still too low to be reliable, even for a quickly converging stat like PFR. Of course I could be wrong.

[brettbrettr]

So you're calling a 3-bet?

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm no statistician but I think 70 is still too low to be reliable, even for a quickly converging stat like PFR. Of course I could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the statistics background to determine this, but I just loaded my session window and looked at sessions around 70 hands and my vpip. The standard deviation seemed to be about 2 or 3, so I think for PFR which would converge at a similar rate we can be fairly sure that a 5PFR over 70 isn't actually > 10. 80% confidence seems about right. This is all just estimating of course - feel free to correct me.

-SmileyEH

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're calling a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you mean cap right?

I didn't want to face that decision - this is more of a personal preference, but I hate putting myself to a decision where folding an overpair could be correct.

-SmileyEH