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#12
09-27-2005, 01:32 PM
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Re: 100/200 69s on the button
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think you're going to get c/r on the turn almost every time. [/ QUOTE ] Sure is risky of AK, AJ to to give the free card here, no? [/ QUOTE ] This is the real heart of the matter. The ace is a big scare card. If either of my opponents had AK, they would be out the turn. Same might be true of AJ, although it is possible AJ would fold the Q high flop. If I'm getting checkraised, I think it is because someone has a monster and I don't mind folding to the checkraise. I think their checks are a definite sign that they have basically nothing or basically everything. I don't think I'll get called down by a pocket pair like TT. So I bet the turn. [/ QUOTE ] As I noted above, I believe this is the right play. But also as noted above, I call if checkraised. It sounds like you fold if checkraised and after thinking some more I'm not sure by 11 or 12:1 is good enough to call a checkraise. Whats your thoughts, Paluka, on this? Do I have 4 good outs here? Perhaps I do against 1 but not 2 opponents. I just don't know. 
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#13
09-27-2005, 01:46 PM
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Re: 100/200 69s on the button
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think you're going to get c/r on the turn almost every time. [/ QUOTE ] Sure is risky of AK, AJ to to give the free card here, no? [/ QUOTE ] This is the real heart of the matter. The ace is a big scare card. If either of my opponents had AK, they would be out the turn. Same might be true of AJ, although it is possible AJ would fold the Q high flop. If I'm getting checkraised, I think it is because someone has a monster and I don't mind folding to the checkraise. I think their checks are a definite sign that they have basically nothing or basically everything. I don't think I'll get called down by a pocket pair like TT. So I bet the turn. [/ QUOTE ] As I noted above, I believe this is the right play. But also as noted above, I call if checkraised. It sounds like you fold if checkraised and after thinking some more I'm not sure by 11 or 12:1 is good enough to call a checkraise. Whats your thoughts, Paluka, on this? Do I have 4 good outs here? Perhaps I do against 1 but not 2 opponents. I just don't know. [/ QUOTE ] I think a turn checkraise represents 2 pair or better, I certainly don't think I have 5 outs.
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#15
09-27-2005, 02:01 PM
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Re: 100/200 69s on the button
Your avatar is making me ill, but it's hard to say why.
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#16
09-27-2005, 02:05 PM
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Re: 100/200 69s on the button
[ QUOTE ]
i think taking a free card is your best option. you may be drawing dead. second best is betting and deciding that's the last bet you put in the pot. [/ QUOTE ] If he bets here, he has to bet the river!
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#17
09-27-2005, 02:43 PM
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Re: 100/200 69s on the button
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i think taking a free card is your best option. you may be drawing dead. second best is betting and deciding that's the last bet you put in the pot. [/ QUOTE ] If he bets here, he has to bet the river! [/ QUOTE ] What hands do you think will call the turn and fold to a river blank?
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#18
09-27-2005, 02:51 PM
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Re: 100/200 69s on the button
the chances that an A is out are reduced by the fact that no one bet the turn. however, the fact that no one showed interest in the A means that someone is probably slowplaying. there's an A and a Q on the board. you were 3-bet and capped by the blinds and they've both checked twice. how can someone NOT be slowplaying?
but the problem is the pot is big and you might be ahead. if checkraised you can throw it away. you have 0 or 2 outs more than you have 5. by doing that you protect your hand as well. if you don't bet, you'll probably end up paying off one bet if you're not overcalling (hard to resist if the SB checks for a third time or if he bets and the BB folds). at first I thought betting was really dumb and wondered why The Paluka would post such a simple question. but the more and more I think about it, the more I feel like you ought to bet since you're usually going to put one bet in either way and betting twice against these guys is showing a lot of strength. if you get raised, oh well, you would've probably paid off on the river anyway. the upside of betting is much greater than the downside I think. that's not to say I think you're going to win though. but it's one of those situations where every option sucks, so pick the least bad one since there's too much money in the pot to just give up
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#19
09-27-2005, 02:55 PM
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Re: 100/200 69s on the button
So as I said I bet the turn, the small blind called, the big blind folded. The river was a blank, I don't recall what but a 2,3, or 5 or something. He checked. I decided to check. I didn't think he would fold a pair on the river if he was willing to call with it on the turn. He might do this if he had 89s or 78s, I guess.
He had JhTh and my hand was good.
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#20
09-27-2005, 03:02 PM
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Re: 100/200 69s on the button
if I'm the SB and you opened on the button, then bet at a three-bettor and a capper twice, then again at me on the river, I'd probably assume you have a pretty big hand. I might call the turn to try to pick up a second pair or trips, or maybe hope you just check behind on the river so my 77 is good.
when you are just called on the turn there's a good chance you ahve the best hand, and a great chance the SB is weak. I think it's a good time to bet. the hands you mentioned might fold, and 55-22 might even pay off since you don't know him. also, there may be some small value in not showing that you raised with 96s, and maybe even some if you do get called. on the outside, raising with 96s then betting 3 times with sixes on a board with an AQ on it against a 3-bettor and capper looks maniacal
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