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#11
11-09-2005, 01:09 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
I think the flop bet is fine here. Hero's hand is good a pretty high percentage of the time on a T high flop. Villain basically has to just have any non-pair hand and BB has to have missed as well.
We are giving reverse implied odds here, as villain may have a draw in addition to overcards and so on. But in a decent pot I think it's not good to give up here too early. I think betting into the pre-flop raiser and check-calling then donking a safe turn are both acceptable options here. Betting has the nice effect of encouraging the pre-flop raiser to raise and force out the BB, and also gains initiative, value, etc... Check-calling then donking is nice because we invest less when a bad card hits on the turn, spew less against better made hands (we probably need to stop'n'go a safe turn if we bet into the pre-flop raiser and are raised on the flop), and so forth. I think the turn bet may be kind of bad though. You are really only beating exactly KJ and KQ at this point, and both have a ton of outs to beat you anyway. I think it's fine to check and fold at this point. Sometimes villain will check behind the turn anyway and you might win when villain has KQ or KJ that way. River bet is spewing. Villain folds here basically if and only if he has an inferior hand. Betting to try to fold out 66-88 is silly. 
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#12
11-09-2005, 01:30 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop bet is fine here. Hero's hand is good a pretty high percentage of the time on a T high flop. Villain basically has to just have any non-pair hand and BB has to have missed as well. We are giving reverse implied odds here, as villain may have a draw in addition to overcards and so on. But in a decent pot I think it's not good to give up here too early. I think betting into the pre-flop raiser and check-calling then donking a safe turn are both acceptable options here. Betting has the nice effect of encouraging the pre-flop raiser to raise and force out the BB, and also gains initiative, value, etc... Check-calling then donking is nice because we invest less when a bad card hits on the turn, spew less against better made hands (we probably need to stop'n'go a safe turn if we bet into the pre-flop raiser and are raised on the flop), and so forth. I think the turn bet may be kind of bad though. You are really only beating exactly KJ and KQ at this point, and both have a ton of outs to beat you anyway. I think it's fine to check and fold at this point. Sometimes villain will check behind the turn anyway and you might win when villain has KQ or KJ that way. River bet is spewing. Villain folds here basically if and only if he has an inferior hand. Betting to try to fold out 66-88 is silly. [/ QUOTE ] I agree except I think the turn bet is the right play. If you get raised you can drop your hand easily, but if you check it is likely that your opponent will take a stab and you will lose the pot the a bluff. After he cals the turn, you have to check-call the river to try to pick off a busted straight draw.
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#13
11-09-2005, 01:44 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think the flop bet is fine here. Hero's hand is good a pretty high percentage of the time on a T high flop. Villain basically has to just have any non-pair hand and BB has to have missed as well. We are giving reverse implied odds here, as villain may have a draw in addition to overcards and so on. But in a decent pot I think it's not good to give up here too early. I think betting into the pre-flop raiser and check-calling then donking a safe turn are both acceptable options here. Betting has the nice effect of encouraging the pre-flop raiser to raise and force out the BB, and also gains initiative, value, etc... Check-calling then donking is nice because we invest less when a bad card hits on the turn, spew less against better made hands (we probably need to stop'n'go a safe turn if we bet into the pre-flop raiser and are raised on the flop), and so forth. I think the turn bet may be kind of bad though. You are really only beating exactly KJ and KQ at this point, and both have a ton of outs to beat you anyway. I think it's fine to check and fold at this point. Sometimes villain will check behind the turn anyway and you might win when villain has KQ or KJ that way. River bet is spewing. Villain folds here basically if and only if he has an inferior hand. Betting to try to fold out 66-88 is silly. [/ QUOTE ] I agree except I think the turn bet is the right play. If you get raised you can drop your hand easily, but if you check it is likely that your opponent will take a stab and you will lose the pot the a bluff. After he cals the turn, you have to check-call the river to try to pick off a busted straight draw. [/ QUOTE ] i thought the bet wass better than the check/call because i a) win when he decides to throw his hand away even if it beats me b) can easily fold if i get re-raised ( he'd only be bluffing there a tiny percentage of the time i think if he reraised ) c) still gets value for my hand if for some reason he calls with a tiny pocket pair or K high or something.
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#14
11-09-2005, 01:49 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] What were your thoughts behind the river bet? [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] i thought he probably had overcards and when the ace came i figured he might have hit one of his overcards but i bet anyway because if i didn't he would have auto-bet and i would have had to fold. i bet anyway figuring he'd raise if he had an ace and he didn't. that left me relatively clueless as to what he had but when the second ace came down it obviously made it less likely that he had an ace ( and keep in mind i would have folded to any raise along the way ). there's probably something wrong with my line of thought here and i definetly wouldn't mind having it pointed out regardless of how the hand played out. [/ QUOTE ] EV of betting when no worse hands calls, but better hands raise (or call) = -1.0 EV of calling when there is any chance of a bluff = < -1.0
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#16
11-09-2005, 03:42 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
Betting the river is bad, only worse hand he can have is a busted draw (and occasionally a split pair of threes). Check it and if he bets, decide if your pot odds are good enough to call.
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#17
11-09-2005, 03:56 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
Yeah there are some other problems with this hand too. You need to check the flop, betting only gives him a chance to push you off your hand if your hand is bet, and gives you a chance to waste a bet when you could have saved one (when the flop goes bet-call or worse). On the turn, you are no longer running a "marginal value play", you are now running a "stone bluff." And you are running a stone bluff OOP into a pfr on a very drawy, ace high board. The turn should be check/folded. I think you should start trying to think more about "why am I making this bet, what is it going to accomplish" when you bet instead of continuing to push just because you have the initiative. By the way I really like your posts, the thread in Internet forum that was supposed to be about collusion was one of the funniest things I had read in a long time before Mike Haven came and screwed it all up. Keep posting! And give Other Other Topics a try too, I think you would enjoy it there.
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#18
11-09-2005, 04:53 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah there are some other problems with this hand too. You need to check the flop, betting only gives him a chance to push you off your hand if your hand is bet, and gives you a chance to waste a bet when you could have saved one (when the flop goes bet-call or worse). On the turn, you are no longer running a "marginal value play", you are now running a "stone bluff." And you are running a stone bluff OOP into a pfr on a very drawy, ace high board. The turn should be check/folded. I think you should start trying to think more about "why am I making this bet, what is it going to accomplish" when you bet instead of continuing to push just because you have the initiative. By the way I really like your posts, the thread in Internet forum that was supposed to be about collusion was one of the funniest things I had read in a long time before Mike Haven came and screwed it all up. Keep posting! And give Other Other Topics a try too, I think you would enjoy it there. [/ QUOTE ] LOL yeah that thread was pretty much gayer than words can explain, thanks. i've gotten into the habit of posting hands that confuse or interest me because i figure its money in the bank long term.
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#19
11-09-2005, 09:43 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
I don't mind it as long as every street is 'bet/fold' and 'bet/fold'. Though, Check/calling the river is an option as well, as its a classic 'induce the bluff' when he has king high.
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#20
11-09-2005, 11:18 AM
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Re: do you often make a play like this with a small pair?
nicely put
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