99 on scary board

[TStoneMBD]

if i am raised on the river, i am beat close to 100% of the time.

villain called the turn despite the ace falling. this would mean that he either has a king, ace high, a middle pair or a draw.

he didnt checkraise the turn, so i find an ace unlikely.

he called the turn, so if he has a middle pair hes paying another bet on the river.

if he has a draw he may very well call the river with queen high. yes, the players at 3/6 are really this bad.

im not arguing one way or another, im just merely explaining what value there is in betting this river for those that do not know.

[admiralfluff]

A lot of players get really passive in this spot. They call with a weak ace, and call it down. I think you're beat here often. He either has a draw he's throwing away to a bet, or he has an A or K he is worried about and will call for the win.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he would raise the turn with an Ace and he will raise the river with a K

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I think this seriously overestimates the aggressiveness of the average 3/6 player.

[TStoneMBD]

his logical holdings? i suppose youve never played 3/6 online before? there are many players who will defend their blinds with any 2. yes, any 2. ive seen cold calls from the sb with 27o.

[Chris Dow]

Ok, so I'm the only person who thinks he might get frisky with ace high on the flop and then hit the ace and just call. That's ok, I'm at 2/4 currently and that's what they might do there. I obviously do not disagree at all that if you bet and get raised you are folding. I think he will cr a king here on the river at least a reasonable amount of time. Like an earlier poster mentioned, the hands with 6 or 2 in them really seem unlikely to me (unless they were coupled with an ace but then you probably would have been cr'ed on the turn). But if this guy is ever calling a river bet with the queen high busted flush draw there is no doubt that this immediately turns into a bet/fold situation. I wasn't giving him credit for that at all. 99 is sufficiently above the other pairs to make a bet okay if he's really going to be calling both the flop raise and the turn bet with 33 and both an ace and a king on board. I feel like now we're getting into a realm that is becoming player dependent and the initial post gave no descriptions.

[TStoneMBD]

no youre absolutely right about the fact that villain could be holding a lone ace here. that does happen but not that frequently.

[BigEndian]

Oh, btw. You should remember to remove the highlighting on your final action. It tips your hand - so to speak.

- Jim

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
his logical holdings? i suppose youve never played 3/6 online before? there are many players who will defend their blinds with any 2. yes, any 2. ive seen cold calls from the sb with 27o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Played enough 3/6 to know it happens. But when I am trying to break down a hand, yes I assume a minimal amount of logic. There was no read on this hand, so in my thought process I do assign an unknown a certain amount of "reason".

[TStoneMBD]

if a player comes out and bets somewhere in the hand, ill give him a line of logic. if he is just calling then i assume he is holding 2 cards with a 13x13 probability of likelyhood.

[beginner]

Definitely check on river!

[TStoneMBD]

villain showed KQ and didnt even checkraise the river.