An AQ hand inspired from SS2

[AdamL]

Right. So how do we turn that into something solid we can work with for deciding whether to raise preflop or not?

Our equity is something like 22-23% here usually, preflop. That is about 8% above even for 7 players. If you raise you might have 6 of them. You have about 1.575 SB of equity without a raise and with 7 players. You have about 2.7SB of equity if you raise with 6 players. So you gain about 1SB by raising, equity wise. (note: I'm bad with poker mathematics, I tend to miss things, check this over.)

You only ever collect the equity you have if you hit solid on the flop. This applies whether you raised preflop or not. So...

That makes it easy. The question is simple: Can we gain 1SB worth of value back on the flops we like, which we gave up on the preflop? Sure. We can raise a bettor. We can protect our hand better.

Notice nowhere are we saying keep the pot small. The pot size isn't important, it's the strategic value of either play. One involves gaining the 1SB preflop and the other involves doing it post-flop. Which is better?

I tend to think if you can eliminate players with a raise preflop, it's best to do so. But I don't know the math of how many you need to knock out. And, if you can't knock anyone out (the classic "5 limprs to me with AJo on the BB" scenario, for example) it does make sense to just call, or check as it were, preflop and save the muscle for your solid flops.

One other benefit, getting away from the math now a bit, is that your hand is disguised. If you raised preflop players will be much more inclined to get tricky with their monsters. Without knowing what you have, they are more likely to just press their advantage home, giving you an edge for your decisions.

I hope this is interesting.

[zephed]

[ QUOTE ]
Curious what you guys think. Both plays are worth questioning imo.

You have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

5 players limp and you call on the Button. SB folds BB checks.

Flop is T-6-7 rainbow.

Somebody bets, say MP1 after two checks. Hero folds. Doesn't matter if there was a caller between the bet or not.

Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice avatar. I'd raise preflop.

It will play differently after that.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
It does, specifically if "6 players limp in".

But I think that the advice, if it is wrong, is not obviously so. It requires some thought and analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

This idea in HEPFAP is more applicable when people are limping reasonable hands like 66, T9s, etc. When people at this limit are limping crap like J7o, you have too much equity preflop not to push.

[Niediam]

SS2 limit hold'em chapter was not written for microlimit/small stakes games. You are leaving money on the table by not raising with your premium hands preflop.

[AdamL]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It does, specifically if "6 players limp in".

But I think that the advice, if it is wrong, is not obviously so. It requires some thought and analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

This idea in HEPFAP is more applicable when people are limping reasonable hands like 66, T9s, etc. When people at this limit are limping crap like J7o, you have too much equity preflop not to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

The equity given in my 5th post is fine even vs random hands, so the analysis that follows needs to be dealt with. "You have too much equity preflop" -- 22.5% roughly, which gains you about 1SB when you raise. Again, if the math is correct. But it is simply false that you give that 1SB up. You are putting it on hold, it isn't gone. You need to make it up somewhere, usually the flop. Can you? Sure, I think so. That you can debate. But other gains are mentioned as well, fwiw.

Hand 1: 22.4976 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 12.8498 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 12.8261 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 12.9865 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 12.9376 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 12.9586 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 7: 12.9439 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }

[zephed]

Also, what do you do with AKo here? Limp that too?

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It does, specifically if "6 players limp in".

But I think that the advice, if it is wrong, is not obviously so. It requires some thought and analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

This idea in HEPFAP is more applicable when people are limping reasonable hands like 66, T9s, etc. When people at this limit are limping crap like J7o, you have too much equity preflop not to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

The equity given in my 5th post is fine even vs random hands, so the analysis that follows needs to be dealt with. "You have too much equity preflop" -- 22.5% roughly, which gains you about 1SB when you raise. Again, if the math is correct. But it is simply false that you give that 1SB up. You are putting it on hold, it isn't gone. You need to make it up somewhere, usually the flop. Can you? Sure, I think so. That you can debate. But other gains are mentioned as well, fwiw.

Hand 1: 22.4976 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 12.8498 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 12.8261 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 12.9865 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 12.9376 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 12.9586 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 7: 12.9439 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a matter of making up 1 SB somewhere postflop, its a matter of whether not raising preflop will cause you to make more that if you did with an extra 1SB deficit.

[zephed]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It does, specifically if "6 players limp in".

But I think that the advice, if it is wrong, is not obviously so. It requires some thought and analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

This idea in HEPFAP is more applicable when people are limping reasonable hands like 66, T9s, etc. When people at this limit are limping crap like J7o, you have too much equity preflop not to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

The equity given in my 5th post is fine even vs random hands, so the analysis that follows needs to be dealt with. "You have too much equity preflop" -- 22.5% roughly, which gains you about 1SB when you raise. Again, if the math is correct. But it is simply false that you give that 1SB up. You are putting it on hold, it isn't gone. You need to make it up somewhere, usually the flop. Can you? Sure, I think so. That you can debate. But other gains are mentioned as well, fwiw.

Hand 1: 22.4976 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 12.8498 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 12.8261 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 12.9865 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 12.9376 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 12.9586 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 7: 12.9439 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you just lost that 1sb, or whatever you calculate as your edge.

Postflop, you have to make 1sb more than you would have had you raised.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
(the classic "5 limprs to me with AJo on the BB" scenario, for example)

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a big difference between this scenario and the one you are describing in the original post. Can you see it?

Yes. In the original post, you have the button. You have position on the entire field for the whole hand. The reason you don't raise AJo from the BB is mostly because your position sucks. Your positional disadvantage negates some of your postflop expectation, especially when you have a large field sitting behind you. When you sit behind the whole field, things are very different, and you should certainly raise AJo in a similar situation.

I would certainly raise this. I understand the arguments and what the concepts are getting at, but as AK13 pointed out, people are limping in with all sorts of crap that you crush. Your edge may be marginal against a field of solid limpers, but against the rabble at party .5/1 who think limping Q3o UTG is a stellar way to make money, you are giving up far too much value by not taking from them preflop; value that simply cannot be made up no matter how good a postflop player you are.

[Dave G.]

As far as folding this flop for one bet, I'd never advocate that. You have odds to draw for your outs, and you have the best position.

Our goal is to choose the play that has the maximum expected value in each situation. That's how we maximise profit. Now, folding has an expectation of 0. When you have enough odds to call for your outs, your expectation is greater than 0.

So, by mathematical definition, folding this flop for one bet means that you have not chosen the play that maximises your expectation. You have made an error. This is not in question; this is mathematical fact.

And it certainly matters if anyone calls between the bettor or not. Pot size changes, your equity changes, and your action will therefore change.

I think it's interesting to analyse these situations, but having done so, they seem like fairly clear errors to me.