How long until the first person is knocked out?

[drewjustdrew]

I think the OP is right now, surprisingly (to me anyway). Your 220 is correct, but divide it by 9 other hands to get the 24. If 9 handed table, closer to 27 to 1.

[MicroBob]

The first day at the WSOP it is very likely that all the tables will be 11-handed.


that's their plan anyway if they get enough players which it looks like they will (they have already stated that they will be 11-handed at the beginning).


Obviously this increases the chances that you will get AA and KK on the same table.


I still think the chances of a first-hand knock out will come AFTER the flop.

It doesn't even need to be T8 vs 99 on 679 flop.


AA vs. 88 on 268 flop is enough to EASILY get a first-hand elimination.

AhKh vs 88 on flop of Ac8h6h would be enough too with many players.



If you don't think this can happen then I believe you are severely underestimating the typical mediocre player's drive to GAMMMBBOOOOOLLLL!!!

[trevorwc]

I'm not playing in the event, so this is with a grain of salt - but I would find it AWFUL difficult to get myself all in on the first hand without AA or KK preflop or without the stone nuts after the flop. I mean, this is 10k right? In 2 minutes? I think I'd go throw up afterwards.

[MicroBob]

do you think you could lay-down 99 on a flop of 679?

I just don't think there's any way he's getting away from that hand EVEN on the first hand of a big tournament.


The chances that your opponent has 77 or 97 or AA are still pretty high.


Whether or not he left the room to throw-up I am not sure.
The guy who won the hand almost had a heart-attack I think just needing to dodge those full-house bullets on the last 2 cards.

[Sponger15SB]

It doesn't even have to be getting away from 99 on a 976 flop. You could have QQ on a Q 8 2 flop against 88 and then go all in on the turn and have an 8 hit on the river.

If there are 100 tables playing, they'll probably get in like 300-400 hands before the first 10 minutes are up. I think it would be almost impossible for this to not happen.

[eMarkM]

Similar situation happened to a frequent poster in last year's main event. Very, very early, maybe first ten minutes. I don't remember all the details, but I think he had JJ on a KQJ board, bet or raised the flop and other one pushed. He made what the rest of us that heard it at the time thought was a poor call and the other guy, of course, had broadway with AT. Board does not pair and he was out.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
Similar situation happened to a frequent poster in last year's main event. Very, very early, maybe first ten minutes. I don't remember all the details, but I think he had JJ on a KQJ board, bet or raised the flop and other one pushed. He made what the rest of us that heard it at the time thought was a poor call and the other guy, of course, had broadway with AT. Board does not pair and he was out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to recreate an old hand, but the problem is, by the time you have defined your opponent's hand, you are usually getting appropriate odds to call the all-in with a set. I know..."donkeys alwasy draw"

[MicroBob]

well....if two guys go all-in with set over set then it wouldn't matter if the lower set were to hit his quads on the turn.

I hit a 1-outer of this variety in the Zoo Tsunami relief tourney on Stars last December.
I had set of 5's against his set of T's....but nailed my quads on the river...went on to finish 6th in the tourney.


FWIW - The number of ridiculous 'went all-in with my quads and he his his straight-flush draw' bad-beat stories that I have heard out here is ridiculous.

[AcesUp]

They won't be playing 11-handed. They will start with 2000 players each day (200 tables of 10 players), with 200 alternates...


-Aces

[MicroBob]

I will be VERY relieved if this is true.
but I thought I read on their little FAQ sheet that it said 11-handed play.
I don't remember right now though and don't feel like trying to find the sheet to confirm.
If it's 11-handed then I'll deal with it...if not then I won't complain.