satellite bubble hand

[Lurshy]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of checkraising all-in? Unless the opponent has a set (or 5-4 for a straight), he has no reason to risk becoming the short stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why take the risk? The small stack is gone at this point. You risk going out or becoming the big stack (still no guarentee at this point). The point being you can't win on this hand.

You going all-in brings a big smile to the small stack's face.

You can close the action and see the next card without really damaging your stack. If you are concerned that some of your outs aren't live you can even get away from the hand knowing at least the small stack did not gain either.

[M.B.E.]

In the actual hand, I gave some thought to checkraising the turn, but in the end I chickened out and just called.

The river brought the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] completing my flush. I bet 800 into the 2875 pot, and my opponent called with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a rivered top two.

Maybe I should have bet a little more on the river, but I really was just happy to win the pot here since it gave me a nice cushion over the short stack. Winning a few extra chips on top of that is not significant. In betting I also was very conscious of what I would do if my opponent raised. Even though I had a flush I still would be reluctant to call any raise, because if I called and lost then it would severely decrease my probability of winning a seat -- whereas if I folded to the raise I'd still be in second place.

When I bet 800 on the river, I think I would have been able to call a raise of perhaps 1600 more, but would have had to fold to a bigger raise than that. (Even though it was possible that the raise was a bluff with the naked A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].) If I had bet 1500 on the river, I don't think I'd have been able to call anything more than a min-raise.

I hadn't thought about bluffing the river if it had been a diamond that didn't help me, as Che suggested. It probably would have been the right play to do that.

Getting back to my decision on the turn, I now think that checkraising all-in would have been my best play. If the big stack called my check-raise and lost, he would be down to 3,800 chips -- in third place by a fair margin. Even if he had a very good hand like two pair or an overpair, there would just be no reason for him to take that risk when he could fold and continue as chip leader with a nice cushion over the short stack.

Also he wouldn't suspect me of semibluffing all-in since I had been playing very cautiously for the last hour or so, and he was aware that I had a lot to lose by committing all my chips.

From the information I had at the time, it was unlikely the button had flopped a straight or a set since I think he would have bet that on the flop. (Though I might be wrong on that point.) Even if he has a small set, 22 or 33, he might choose to fold it since from his perspective it will look like very much like I have a straight. He might have 99 for the turned set, and I think he would call with that, but the chance of that is very slim and even then I have 13 outs.

The problem with just calling (as I did) is that if I miss the river, the stack sizes would be 13,750; 7,075; 6,175. I'd still be in second place, but with only a slim lead over the small stack. In that scenario, how likely would I be to get one of the seats? Perhaps 70%? At most 75%.

Whereas if I checkraised all-in on the turn, my opponent is almost certain to fold, in which case the stack sizes would be 10,875; 9,950; 6,175. That would give me a comfortable margin over the small stack, and I would guess about a 85%-90% chance of winning one of the seats.

Thinking some more about it, calling the turn might have been worse even than folding -- since if I folded I'd be left with 1700 more chips than the short stack, but if I called and lost I'd have only 900 more chips than the short stack.

[MLG]

I think you over-estimate the ability of your opponent to fold a big hand. Even if he was playing conservatively I think that many times you will be called by hands that "should" fold. As usual though, great analysis.

[HiatusOver]

I just dont see how the button can give u any sort of hand after checking twice on such a draw heavy board. You havent addressed this yet. Is the answer just that it doesnt matter because of the stack sizes and payout structure? The way u have played the hand if the button is thinking he has to put u on a move here. Now whether he is willing to call with just a 9 is the real question, and the risk/reward answer is that maybe he is willing to lay down the best hand. Also, I dont think folding the turn could be better than calling.

[MLG]

The point is that it doesnt matter if M.B.E. is making a move. If you're the big stack even if its say 75% like that M.B.E. is bluffing you should still fold rather than risk a large chunk of your stack.