redsox on opening day.... sunday +180 !!!!

[TheRover]

[ QUOTE ]
Last season in Wells 31 starts his team (SD) went 18-13. In Johnsons 35 starts his team (AZ) went 16-19. His team lost more than half of his starts! I realize a lot of them were despite great performances by Johnson. But both guys upgrade teams, Johnson probably more than Wells. But there is something to be said in Wells' team winning 58% of his starts and Johnson's team winning only 45% of his starts.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing that can be said is that Wells pitched for a decent team and Johnson pitched for a horrible team. There is no useful stat that won't show Johnson as much, much better. I still like Boston here though.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing that can be said is that Wells pitched for a decent team and Johnson pitched for a horrible team.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. It is an intangible which can be interpreted in many ways. Keeping your team in the game when it's close is the true mark or a winner. While agree Johnson had horrible support last season, he has always been a guy with better numbers than results, especially back in his Seattle days. Except for that magical World Championship season in Arizona he is a guy that almost always let the big ones get away.

[TheRover]

I don't buy the whole intangibles thing very much, but that's cool, we can just disagree on that.

[the alex]

How about RJ's ERA and WHIP in those Diamondback losses v. Wells's ERA and WHIP in those Padres losses.

[ QUOTE ]
But there is something to be said in Wells' team winning 58% of his starts and Johnson's team winning only 45% of his starts.


[/ QUOTE ]
There's almost nothing to be said about that when Johnson's team was the Diamondbacks. ERA and WHIP are the key and the Yankees hit better than every NL team and Wells's WHIP is propotionately bad to Johnson and though I hate the Yankees, Wells will make more mistakes and the Yankees have an offense that gives pitchers less margin of error than the BoSox.

Start RJ for the Red Sox and Wells for the Yanks in this game and I think we have a +110 on the Red Sox side, if not a -140. Last I checked the Yanks are a -120, and I'm laying $250 on this game easily. Definitely a +EV bet with The Big Unit on the mound.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
Last I checked the Yanks are a -120, and I'm laying $250 on this game easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think NYY are -200 (at most books). Of course the yankees are a steal at -120, but that isn't the line. Of course I might have misunderstood what you were saying.

craig

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
ERA and WHIP are the key

[/ QUOTE ]

I like ERA and whip and use them in all of my analysis. But I use wins too. Wins (and team record when starting) are important. They account for a lot of the intangibles. Most importantly heart and grit when the game is on the line.

I don't expect either guy to pitch a complete game here. And the Yankees/Johnson have the advantage. I just don't feel it's a +190/-210 kind of advantage. I'd lay -120 on the Yankees too. That line just doesn't exist though.

[MicroBob]

hence the importance of actually LOOKING at the lines.


-120: Yes, bet the Yankees. VERY Good value.

+182: Yes, bet the Red Sox. Likely adeqaute value.

-165/+165:
Probably not worth betting either side.



Golly this is complicated.

[mikelow]

Might take the Red Sox on the run line--very tempting puppy at +180 or more. But David Wells should have retired.

Anyone for the over?

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
hence the importance of actually LOOKING at the lines

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why baseball betting is so profitable with daily edges. The public keeps trying to pick winners and not only disregarding the price but actually skewing the price.

It isn't about picking the winner, it's about picking the undervalued side. In his career Johnson has a 65% winning percentage (in comparison Wells' is 60%). Johnson has to do that 65% here just to break even on this bet and that 65% was not accomplished pitching against defending World Champions or guys with highly respectable 60% winning percentages. Add in that Boston had the most potent offense in the game last year as another deterant. If Johnson pitched every game of his career versus the defending champs with a 60% winner against him his career winning percentage would be much lower.

[Losing all]

Most of my future plays are fading NY, and the wheels gotta fall off the Randy Johnson monster at some point (this year I hope). That being said you've got me scratching my head with your analysis of his 04 season. I don't have his numbers in front of me, but they were pretty GD solid. I don't see the value in Ariz's winning % in his starts seeing that they were so low on talent, and even lower on give a sh!t.