quick odds calculation question

[SpeakEasy]

"Outs" are your estimate of the number of cards that will give you the best hand. Flush draw and two overcards = 15 outs (may be less, depending upon whether any of these cards will give opponent the better hand).

On the Flop:
1-8 outs --> Outs x 4
9-12 outs --> (Outs x 4) - 1
13+ outs --> (Outs x 4) - 4

On the Turn:
(Outs x 2) + 2

These calculations will tell you the % chance of hitting one of your "outs."

Example:
I hold AQo, board is K J 9

I estimate my outs on the flop to be any ace or ten -- 7 outs. Formula: 7x4=28. 28% chance of seeing one of my cards on the turn or river. Translated into pot odds, this is roughly 4 to 1 odds of hitting one of my outs. If the pot + bets is giving me better than 4 to 1 odds, I call on the flop (or raise, if the situation dictates).

For turning the percentages into pot odds, just remember some basic benchmarks:
50% chance requires 2 to 1 pot odds.
33% chance requires 3 to 1 pot odds.
25% chance requires 4 to 1 pot odds.
20% chance requires 5 to 1 pot odds.
16% chance requires about 6 to 1 pot odds.
10% chance requires 10 to 1 pot odds.

With practice, this becomes very easy to calculate on the fly. Go forth and calculate.

[ianlippert]

[ QUOTE ]
it should be pretty selfexplanitory why its Xx4 and Xx2 since youre getting half the cards you divide by 2. again, i dont know why this system works, all i know is that it works.

[/ QUOTE ]

It because you are changing your outs into a percentage. The reson the 2x works is because there are almost 50 cards in the deck. If you wanted to change 8/50 into a percentage you multiply top and bottom by 2 to get 16/100 or 16%. The 4x is because you are getting a second card your percentage is doubled. Once again, this system gives you an estimate and gets very sketchy around 15. I remember one play I had 18 outs and calculated it as 72%, when really it was more like 66%. Still good enough to call the guy all in though.

[TStoneMBD]

you math people are awesome. i have no idea what you said, but i dont know what id do without you guys.

[gambool]

[ QUOTE ]

50% chance requires 2 to 1 pot odds.
33% chance requires 3 to 1 pot odds.
25% chance requires 4 to 1 pot odds.
20% chance requires 5 to 1 pot odds.
16% chance requires about 6 to 1 pot odds.
10% chance requires 10 to 1 pot odds.


[/ QUOTE ]
Aren't you a point out on each of these? e.g. for a 50% chance you need even money?

[Nicmavsfan28]

please explain as you would a small child how you got those numbers :32/47 and 31/46 (was it?) anyway...with 15 outs why would it not be 30/47. Im really confused. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Cobra]

You have 47 unseen cards and you are trying to figure the probability of getting one or more of your 15 outs. To do this you take 1 and subtract the probability of getting none of your outs on the turn and river.

Now with 15 good cards and 47 unseen this leaves (47-15) = 32 bad cards. So the first term of missing your outs is 32/47. Now for the river you still have 15 good cards 46 unseen cards and (46-15) = 31 bad cards. So the second term of missing your outs on the river is 31/46. Hopefully that helps.

Cobra

[boogster]

Everyone is giving you the outs AGAINST hitting your hand. I calculate my odds based on the chances that I WILL hit my hand. So, here's what I do:

If you have 9 outs after the flop, then you have a 9x4=36% chance of hitting one of your outs. Therefore, you need 64%:36% or 2 to 1 pot odds to play till the river. Or if you are playing to just one card, then you have 9x2=18% or 82%:18% or roughly 4 to 1 pot odds to play for one card. Remember to count your own bet when calculating the pot odds. I think this is the easiest way to calculate pot odds versus the number of outs that you have to make your hand.

So, if you're drawing to a four flush after the flop (9 outs) and there's $30 in the pot and you're the last to act, do you call a $5 bet or not? Of course you do, because you're getting roughly 7:1 pot odds and your chances of hitting that flush on the turn is 4:1. If you are calling $10, then you don't have the odds to call ($30:$10 pot odds versus 4:1 outs). Of course, this is assuming that you're playing limit hold'em. In no limit, implied odds carry a heavy weight.

[Cobra]

Boogster,

When determining if you have the right Pott odds to call a situation you do not add your bet into the pot. Your bet is not part of the pot untill you actually put it in. In your example of $30 in the pot and it cost you $5 to see it your pott odds are 6:1. And with $30 in the pott and $10 to call your pott odds are 3:1.

Cobra

[boogster]

You're right.

[ QUOTE ]
Boogster,

When determining if you have the right Pott odds to call a situation you do not add your bet into the pot. Your bet is not part of the pot untill you actually put it in. In your example of $30 in the pot and it cost you $5 to see it your pott odds are 6:1. And with $30 in the pott and $10 to call your pott odds are 3:1.

Cobra

[/ QUOTE ]

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]

I estimate my outs on the flop to be any ace or ten -- 7 outs. Formula: 7x4=28. 28% chance of seeing one of my cards on the turn or river. Translated into pot odds, this is roughly 4 to 1 odds of hitting one of my outs. If the pot + bets is giving me better than 4 to 1 odds, I call on the flop (or raise, if the situation dictates).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very bad advice. Yes, you have a 28% of hitting your hand by the river with 7 outs, but you are not using pot odds properly because you are failing to include the cost of calling on the turn and river. To use the pot size to determine whether to call on the flop, you should consider only whether the pot size justifies the call for the next card only and then make a small adjustment for the implied odds you may get if you hit. In the current example, you are justified in calling with 7 outs if the pot is laying about 6 to 1 (not 4 to 1) (if the draw is for the nuts with very little chance of a redraw, then you can require slightly less odds due to implied odds).